Forward-looking highlights from GeoQuant’s high-frequency political risk intelligence platform.
US-China trade dispute set to re-escalate
Despite the positive atmospherics, our data continues to indicate that the bilateral meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at this past weekend’s G20 summit did not — and more importantly, will not — result in a major breakthrough in the U. S.-China trade dispute.
Per the graph, note that while the G-20 “cease fire” — whereby both sides agreed to a temporary cessation of tariff increases and a 90-day negotiation window, while China agreed (in very general terms) to purchase more U. S. goods– comes near a low in Chinese Investment/ Trade Policy Risk, that risk is still projected to increase significantly in the coming months. This is because the meeting made little headway toward resolving the core long-term issue underlying the trade dispute – notably, U. S. allegations that China continues to illicitly acquire advanced technology from U. S. firms with potential national security implications – suggesting that U. S.-China trade tensions are likely to continue for the foreseeable future.
China: Investment/Trade Policy Risk GeoQuant 2018
Moreover, the G20 communiqué – which highlights the need to reform the World Trade Organization (WTO) to better manage the multilateral trading system – is similarly unlikely to further a quick resolution of the U. S.-China trade dispute and, despite being highlighted by many observers as a summit success, is more likely to prolong it.
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Macron and the ‘Yellow Vests’
The recent spate of social unrest in France has driven Social Risk to its highest point since the controversial demolition of the Calais « Jungle » migrant camp in October 2016.
