Europe is reeling. May faces disaster, Macron is plagued by « yellow vests » riots, Merkel is on her way out, Salvini is leading the charge against the EU.
WASHINGTON, DC: Prime Minister Theresa May has survived a vote of no confidence in Parliament. Even holding onto her position as Prime Minister, May is fatally damanged as a leader. She has already promised not to stand in the next elections.
However, even if she survives as Prime Minister, May will almost certainly have to call for new elections sometime in the coming months.
May’s weakness in dealing with Brexit and her untenable hold on power teeters in the balance. Brexit itself, and the future of Great Britain within the EU is not only up in the air, but matches a sweeping instability and crisis across Europe.
May has made an emotional appeal to her party just minutes ago, but there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of new negotiable changes the EU is willing to make with her. The current Brexit plan does not have the votes to pass Parliament. The impasse will not be solved by Mays survival.
May received 210 out of 317 votes, with 117 from her Conservative caucus voting against her. No one can challenge her leadership o the arty for another year now. But Theresa May has lost the confidence of the electorate and should go. She is mortally wounded. Apparently, however, she is not going anywhere.
Brexit is supposed to take place in March 2019. That will inevitably be postponed since there is no deal. The disruptions on both sides of the English Channel of a hard sudden break with the EU, a no-deal Brexit, if allowed to happen, would be purposefully and uselessly harmful.
Events will move swiftly after today’s vote.
There will be no new leadership election. The rise of a firmer and more committed Brexiteer as the new Prime Minister has been blocked. Boris Johnson had been the most frequently mentioned, but he will have to wait for another day.
The aftermath now will be continued turmoil, and a call soon by the Remain faction for either a new referendum or a new election. I don’t sense a referendum until down the road. But a new election will almost certainly be called in the near future, and it will center completely around Brexit, serving as a referendum in situ.
Conservatives will clearly be the Brexit party, but Labour can regain power in an election by embracing the “Remain” cause, making the elections the equivalent of the referendum. The Scottish National Party and the Northern Ireland party will face a complicated battleground where Brexit will be the central issue on the ballot.
