We know that it doesn’t accuse the president of the crimes of conspiracy with Russia or obstruction of justice. Here’s what could still harm him.
It’s Mueller Eve, and we’re presumably about to learn a bunch of new details about interactions involving President Trump’s campaign and Russia, as well as Trump’s actions vis-a-vis the investigation.
What we know thus far — importantly — is that Robert S. Mueller III didn’t accuse Trump of either conspiracy with Russia or obstruction of justice. Attorney General William P. Barr has come under fire for his letter summarizing the Mueller report’s principal conclusions and personally clearing Trump of obstruction. But assuming he accurately relayed those top-line findings, that’s still hugely significant. Practically speaking, Trump’s base was probably never going to desert him — and GOP members of Congress were never going to support impeaching him — without a real smoking gun. It seems Mueller didn’t find one, and that matters.
But that doesn’t mean Trump will get off scot-free. While Barr’s letter has been criticized for being too friendly for Trump, including by members of Mueller’s team, there’s a real argument to be made that it set the unhelpful expectation that Mueller had somehow exonerated Trump. And despite his own claims of total exoneration, Trump has continued eviscerating the Mueller investigation. That suggests that he’s girding for some potentially bad news Thursday.
What might that bad news be? Below are a few possibilities.
The biggest question heading into Thursday is what Mueller says about obstruction. That’s because this is the crime Mueller chose not to expressly clear the president of, according to Barr’s letter.
That’s unusual. Generally speaking, prosecutors either decide to charge or not, and leave it at that. But Mueller decided to add that qualifier.
Here’s how Barr characterized it:
The question is why Mueller chose this path. Did he do it because the evidence was compelling but perhaps not conclusive — because he believes the actions could be obstruction but that he simply couldn’t decide? Or did he just decided to punt on the question because Justice Department guidelines say Trump can’t be indicted anyway?
Assuming Mueller expounds upon his reasoning here, that will be key.
