First things first: The theme song of the week is Curb Your Enthusiasm.
What’s the point: Trump enters the Republican National Convention in an unusual position for an incumbent: trailing. It’s not just that he’s trailing, though; he’s trailing by a lot. If Trump is to come back and win this election, he’s going to have to rewrite the record books. There have been only three incumbents who were down by more than a point at the beginning of the convention period since 1940: Harry Truman in 1948, Gerald Ford in 1976 and Jimmy Carter in 1980. Only Truman, down by about 10 points, had a deficit that matched Trump’s at the current time. But even Truman didn’t have an opponent who was already pulling in more than half the vote. The potentially good news for Trump is that because he’s in an unprecedented position, it’s difficult to ascertain his true chance of a comeback, especially during a global pandemic. Further, it’s noteworthy that Truman actually did win in 1948. Ford closed his 7-point deficit pre-conventions against Carter in 1976, but still lost by 2 points.
