They might help but they probably won’t be enough.
In recent weeks, progressives have issued a dire warning for Democrats. If President Joe Biden doesn’t try to get more done via executive action, they argue, voters won’t turn out because they’ll feel like the party hasn’t delivered for them. “If the president does pursue and start to govern decisively using executive action and other tools at his disposal, I think we’re in the game,” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) told New York magazine in an interview this week. “But if we decide to just kind of sit back for the rest of the year and not change people’s lives — yeah, I do think we’re in trouble.” In March, the Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC) unveiled a slate of 55 executive actions they’ve recommended Biden take, including canceling student debt, changing rules around overtime pay so more workers are eligible for it, and reducing prescription drug prices. When it comes to mobilization, progressives are correct. Democrats need to do more to energize their base after the party failed to pass the expansive social spending legislation and voting rights protections they promised to advance in 2020. Given their narrow majority in the Senate and the impasse they’ve faced there, it’s possible executive action might be the only route Democrats now have for certain policy changes. Whether executive action will be enough to stem their overall midterm losses, though, is unclear. Typically, there’s significant pushback against the president’s party in the midterms, a dynamic that’s likely to be compounded this year by Biden’s poor approval ratings. Historic trends have also indicated that passing new policy has marginal effects on midterm elections — and can even spur backlash. Instead, factors such as the economy, inflation, and the state of the pandemic are likely to play a much bigger role in how voters assess the party in power. “It’s possible this could have some influence on vote choices in the midterms, but the impact will be at the margin,” says Brown University political scientist Eric Patashnik. “The president’s party nearly always suffers losses in the midterms, and Biden’s executive actions aren’t likely to change that.
