There’s a big test of Trump’s influence, an intra-party Democratic fight, and more.
The busiest month of the 2022 midterm primary season kicks off Tuesday, with Indiana and Ohio holding their nominating contests. The closest-watched race will be the Republican primary for Ohio’s open Senate seat. But there are several other races to watch that day that will reveal a lot about the parties and set up interesting general election matches. Here’s what the Vox politics team will be tracking on Tuesday night. Trump’s influence looms over Ohio’s GOP primaries The question of former president Donald Trump’s power looms large over the GOP primary for the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Republican Sen. Rob Portman. Venture capitalist JD Vance was seen as the white working-class whisperer by many in the press when his memoir Hillbilly Elegy was released in 2016, and back then, Vance was a harsh Trump critic, even saying privately he might be “ America’s Hitler.” But Vance sounds quite different today. He’s campaigned as a staunch Trump ally and has attacked the traditional GOP establishment, and fired off frequent tweets that have induced (and seem designed to induce) outrage among liberals. Such behavior helped Vance win Trump’s endorsement in April, and it led to outrage from supporters of former state treasurer Josh Mandel, who has tried to run an even more extreme campaign and who had previously been leading in polls. (To Trump’s annoyance, Mandel has retained the support of the conservative anti-tax group the Club for Growth.) Trump’s endorsement is believed to have boosted Vance, but there’s been little public polling of the race, and the field is crowded. Other candidates include businessman Mike Gibbons, who had been polling well but recently mused that the middle class should pay more taxes; former state party chair Jane Timken, who is viewed as more of a GOP establishment figure; and state senator Matt Dolan, who is actually running as a Trump critic, saying his party needs to move on from him. Meanwhile, in the open seat primary for Ohio’s Seventh District, former Trump aide Max Miller is the frontrunner. After Rep. Anthony Gonzalez (R) voted for Trump’s impeachment in January 2021, Miller launched a primary challenge to him with Trump’s backing, and fundraised heavily, spurring Gonzalez to retire. But a tumultuous redistricting process eliminated that district, so Miller switched over to take on Rep. Bob Gibbs (R) in the Seventh District instead. Gibbs too decided to retire rather than take on the fight. Politico’s Michael Kruse has reported on Miller’s checkered past (which includes a series of arrests and a claim that he slapped his then-girlfriend, former White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham). These scandals do not seem to have impeded his rise, as Miller has heavily out-raised all his remaining opponents in this safely Republican district. Andrew Prokop A test for progressive ideas in Ohio, and its Democratic base While Republicans have dominated the conversation about Ohio’s Senate primary, two Democratic contests may contain lessons about the future of left-wing politics in a state that’s been trending Republican.
