All the 2024 fantasy thinkers like how Youngkin is the polar opposite of Donald Trump. But he has a reality problem.
Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) has a reality problem. He is gaining momentum among influential Republicans desperate for a second fresh face who can stop former President Donald Trump from winning the 2024 Republican presidential nomination — and, according to conventional wisdom, his inevitable defeat in the general election.
But what happened to the first fresh face — that of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R)? If polls are correct, DeSantis’s face has been bloodied. He is now disparagingly compared to former Wisconsin GOP governor Scott Walker (R). In early 2015, Walker had quickly led the 2016 primary pack before rapidly descending and dropping out in September 2015. Now it appears that DeSantis is imitating Walker’s death spiral. By September, a political Category 5 hurricane could demolish his weak, cash-starved campaign.
If DeSantis were to fold this year, then what I initially referred to as Youngkin’s “reality problem” could be compounded. When Douglas Schoen asks whether Glenn Youngkin is “the dark horse of 2024,” I answer “no.” The Youngkin fantasy will saddle up for a brief wild ride, but only until Team Trump breaks its muscular legs. Why should Youngkin take the risk of tarnishing an otherwise promising political future?
At age 56, Youngkin is a Harvard MBA — smart, attractive, 6’ 5” tall, wealthy, politically savvy, well-spoken and popular. He has a 57 percent job approval rating, with 32 percent disapproving. Before entering politics, Youngkin was CEO of Carlyle Group, a powerhouse global investment firm.
The governor’s mansion was Youngkin’s first attempt at public office. In 2021, as a moderate, no-drama conservative with a strong education message, he defeated former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) in a surprise upset. Youngkin received national attention and notoriety for, among other things, not campaigning with former President Trump.
