Seth Walder gives his intel on some last-minute bets to place before this weekend’s NFL divisional round games.
If I’m placing bets on a weekend, I’m not looking at full game spreads or totals. Those are efficient markets that have been bet into all week. Instead, I’m looking for the obscure. It’s my specialty, anyway. It’s what I build statistical models around to try to find an edge. If there’s an advantage to be found now, it’s in small markets.
So come along for the ride and see how we fare diving deep into this weekend’s props.
Let’s start with defense, since that’s where we’ve had success this year.
Odds by ESPN BET.
George Karlaftis (KC) under 0.5 sacks (-175)
The biggest factor we’ve talked about in this space all season is that the opposing quarterback is a significant driver in any sack forecasts. And that matters a ton right here: no one — not even Patrick Mahomes — was better at sack avoidance than Josh Allen, with a league-low 3.7% sack rate and 12.3% sack-to-pressure rate. Karlaftis might have had 10.5 sacks this season, but he also had only a 10% pass rush win rate at edge — 42nd out of 51 qualifiers at the position. I make the fair price -210.
See also:
Kenny Clark (GB) under 0.5 sacks (-230)
Aidan Hutchinson (DET) under 0.5 sacks (+150)
Nick Bolton (KC) under 9.5 tackles + assists (-110)
Tyler Fulghum breaks down why he’s taking Patrick Mahomes to go over his rushing yards and help the Chiefs cover against the Bills.
Last season, Bolton racked up 180 tackles, but he just hasn’t been hitting the same numbers this season.
