By his own strength, the weakness of Joe Biden, or some combination of the two, Trump would likely win the election if it were held today.
In his third consecutive election as the Republican Party’s nominee for president, former President Donald Trump is something he’s never been before: The favorite. Either by his own strength, President Joe Biden’s weakness, or some combination of the two, Trump would very likely win the election if it were held today.The National Polls
Historically, Trump has been the underdog. When he first declared for the Republican nomination in 2015, he was mocked as a joke candidate. That summer he trailed leading Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton nationally by massive margins — between 10 and 20 points. As the Fall began and people realized that Trump was deadly serious about running for president, he closed the gap with Clinton but remained stubbornly behind her nearly all the way through the campaign. ( Grumpy Old Man Mumbles State of the Union)
Trump’s deficit in 2020 was even more marked. While he briefly pulled into the lead against Clinton twice in 2016 and often remained right on her heels, at no point during the entire 2020 cycle did he get within 4 points of Democratic nominee Joe Biden in the RealClearPolitics polling average. Usually, Joe led by far more. Throughout the entirety of the 2020 presidential cycle going back to the 2017 trial heats, Trump led Biden in just five national polls.
The picture in 2024 could not be more different. Trump has led in 16 national polls in the last month alone. He took the lead against Biden in the average back in September, and he’s yet to relinquish it. A New York Times headline about the newspaper’s own poll with Siena College reads, “Voters Doubt Biden’s Leadership and Favor Trump.” It’s hard to take away any other conclusion from what is regarded as the best survey in the business. The topline result, that Trump leads Biden by 4 percentage points with likely voters, 48 percent to 44 percent, is bad enough.
What’s worse — for Biden — is that the poll shows the Democratic coalition fraying from underneath the president. Ten percent of voters who said they supported Biden in 2020 now said they’re for Trump.
