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Last month, I spoke with Mark Mitchell, the head pollster at Rasmussen Reports, about Kamala’s bounce in the polls and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s impact on the presidential race. Things have definitely changed since then as Trump has gained momentum in the polls, betting markets, and Nate Silver’s election forecast model. So, I followed up with Mitchell to discuss recent developments in the race, including the debate Tuesday night as well as the latest New York Times/Siena College poll, which showed Donald Trump edging ahead of Kamala Harris.
This was a development that took many by surprise — except the folks at Rasmussen Reports. The only thing that Mitchell found surprising was that the NYT/Siena poll hadn’t oversampled Biden supporters as they have in the past. « I was shocked to see they didn’t oversample Biden supporters like many others are », Mitchell told me, pointing out that the sample included just 3% more Biden voters than 2020. Rasmussen uses a 4% margin, so the NYT/Siena poll was more balanced than he had expected.
I previously wrote about the poll and how Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst at the New York Times, tried to downplay the results. Mitchell believes that Cohn is trying to calm the nerves of Democrats behind the scenes, especially after Kamala Harris’s campaign has struggled to gain momentum.
“What offends us is the ‘lack of polling’ comment,” Mitchell said, “because, as one of the most prolific pollsters, we have been putting out a huge amount of polls that agree with them that Trump is winning. They are dismissive of polls they disagree with, which, in my opinion, shows their inherent bias.”
Perhaps most telling was Mitchell’s response to Nate Cohn’s surprise at Trump retaking the lead.
