The latest Fox News Power Rankings presidential forecast has Vice President Kamala Harris in the lead, but this election is still anyone’s game.
Former President Donald Trump has lost his edge in Georgia and North Carolina in the latest Fox News Power Rankings, giving Vice President Kamala Harris a lead in the overall forecast for the first time.
However, with six toss-up states on the map worth a combined 78 electoral votes, this election is still anyone’s game. Debate watchers say Harris won, but wait a few weeks to assess the race
Debate watchers declared Harris the winner of Tuesday’s presidential debate. In a flash poll conducted by CNN in the hours after the showdown, 63% of watchers said they thought Harris had a better performance, and 37% said Trump did.
Trump made headlines for unfounded claims about migrants eating pets and a rebuttal about the size of his rallies, leaving Harris, who stayed on topic and made appeals to moderates, largely out of the conversation after the debate.
When Trump was able to communicate effectively, he told voters that the nation was in decline because of the cost of living and illegal immigration. Issues polling continues to show that it is a strong message.
As with any major event, it will take a few weeks to assess the debate’s impact on the horse race.
Polling shifts after previous debates in the Trump era have been modest. For example, President Biden’s abysmal performance in June cost him his candidacy but only two points in an average of high quality polls taken in the two weeks after the debate.
In 2020, political observers called Trump the clear loser of the first debate after he aggressively interrupted his opponent and the moderator, but he only lost a point in post-debate polls.
Biden saw no change at all in his level of support after the more evenly matched second debate.
However, a point or two means a lot in races that could be decided by only a few thousand votes, so do not confuse « modest » for « inconsequential. »Voters are evenly divided in national surveys
The national race is still tight as a tick, and Trump’s support is steady despite this unprecedented news cycle.
Over the last 12 months of the Fox News Poll, between 48-50% of registered voters have said they supported Trump.
