Intelligence analysis of Tehran’s attack suggests that much-touted Israeli missile defences are not, in fact, impregnable
In the aftermath of Iran’s attack on Israel on Tuesday night, Israeli officials claimed their defences had stood firm. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said Iran had launched more than 180 missiles, but few details about the damage were released and the US’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said the attack “appears to have been defeated and ineffective”.
But as Israel prepares its retaliation, analysts believe those initial reports could have been misleading – and could change the calculus of Israel’s response if it fears getting into a bout of protracted “missile ping-pong” with Iran, especially should Tehran choose softer targets in the future.
Satellite and social media footage has shown missile after missile striking the Nevatim airbase in the Negev desert, and setting off at least some secondary explosions, indicating that despite the highly touted effectiveness of Israel’s Iron Dome and Arrow air defences, Iran’s strikes were more effective than had been previously admitted.
Experts who analysed the footage noted at least 32 direct hits on the airbase. None appeared to have caused major damage, but some landed close to hangars that house Israel’s F-35 jets, among the country’s most prized military assets.
While those missiles did not appear to hit planes on the ground, they would nonetheless have a deadly effect if fired at a city such as Tel Aviv, or if directed at other high-value targets such as the Bazan Group’s oil refineries near Haifa – potentially creating an ecological disaster next to a big Israeli city.
