Four Polymarket accounts that appear to be connected have bet $30 million that Trump will win the election, according to Arkham Intelligence.
With the presidential election less than three weeks away, polls indicate former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are in a virtual dead heat.
But the election odds look somewhat different in the prediction markets, where people can bet money on the outcome of a race, and the constantly changing odds of a Harris or Trump win on these marketplaces are being closely watched by politicos.
Since the start of October, there’s been a notable divergence between the betting markets and the polls. Despite numerous polling averages showing a close race between Harris and Trump, with all major battleground states within the margin of error, the betting markets have moved decisively for Trump.
Rumblings have grown that a single person or a consortium of people could be tipping the scale for Trump on the betting platform Polymarket, with a series of big bets totaling $30 million, in a bid to boost the narrative that he’s a shoo-in for president.
Here’s what you need to know.1. What is Polymarket?
Polymarket is a crypto-based predictions market that has become one of the most popular venues for placing online bets on upcoming elections.
It was founded in 2020 and requires users to place bets via stablecoins. Stablecoins are crypto tokens pegged to a fiat currency like the dollar and rarely deviate from their value.
Polymarket allows investors to bet on yes or no questions. For example: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US presidential election?
Polymarket also allows its users to « trade » its bets, or sell out early for profits or to cut their losses.
This year, Polymarket has seen $1.75 billion worth of trading volume, according to data from The Block, with betting activity exploding on US election outcomes.
