No matter how much money Senate Democratic candidates raise, they’re still facing an uphill battle, mostly due to an unfavorable map.
Ahead of the closing stretch of the 2024 campaign, Democratic incumbents and candidates in the country’s nine competitive Senate races have been crushing their GOP opponents in fundraising, raising four times as much money in a handful of cases.
But Democrats still appear likely to lose their current 51-vote majority, no matter who wins the presidential election. That means that if elected, Vice President Kamala Harris would be unable to enact much of her proposed domestic agenda, particularly on abortion or the economy.
The biggest reason, simply put, is that Democrats are dealing with a really tough map this year.
Roughly a third of the country’s 100 senators are up for reelection every two years, and each cycle brings different opportunities for each party. While 2022 and 2020 provided solid pick-up opportunities for Democrats, they’re almost entirely on defense this year, with very few openings to grow their majority and several opportunities for Republicans to defeat Democrats.
Super PAC spending — including from the crypto industry — as well as ultrawealthy GOP candidates funding their own campaigns, have allowed Republicans to make up some of their money gap.
With Sen. Joe Manchin’s retirement, Republicans are all but guaranteed to pick up a Senate seat in deep-red West Virginia, which would bring them to 50 seats if they don’t suffer any losses.
If former President Donald Trump wins, they already have a hypothetical majority, with a Vice President JD Vance casting the tie-breaking vote in a 50-50 Senate. If Harris wins, Republicans only need to win one more seat to have the majority — and they’ve already got one good shot at that in Montana.In almost every competitive Senate race, Democrats have outraised Republicans in recent months
Money certainly isn’t everything in politics, but it helps to have more of it than your opponent, especially when you’re on defense.
From the arid plains of Montana, to the scorching deserts of Arizona and Nevada, all the way up to the Great Lakes region, Democratic candidates outraised their opponents multiple times over during the most recent fundraising period, which encompassed July 1 through September 30.
In Ohio, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown outraised his opponent nearly five-fold, bringing in $30.7 million while Republican candidate Bernie Moreno raised just $6.5 million. In the race for Michigan’s open Senate seat, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin raised four times as much as her opponent, bringing in roughly $16.7 million while former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers raised nearly $4.
