Who’s ahead in the 2024 presidential race?
State of the race: « Kamala Harris and Donald J. Trump are essentially tied—with neither candidate ahead by even a single point—in The New York Times’s polling average of five critical battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin and North Carolina », reports Times analyst Nate Cohn. « In North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan, neither candidate even ‘leads’ by more than two-tenths of a percentage point. Neither can realistically win the presidency without winning at least one of these states. »
One interesting feature of the race right now—and we are two weeks out from election day—is the number of uncommitted/undecided voters, and the fact that this group skews younger. Older voters have largely made up their minds, but « 43 percent of 18- to 25-year-olds are uncommitted, a larger share than any other age group », reports The , noting too that a higher portion of non-white voters have yet to make up their minds when compared with white voters.
« Trump is strongest in Arizona, where he holds an edge of six percentage points among registered voters », reports the Post. « That shrinks to three points among likely voters. His four-point edge in North Carolina among registered voters ticks down to three points among likely voters. That echoes a Post poll conducted last month but contrasts with a Quinnipiac poll suggesting Harris may have a slight edge. Those advantages are within the margin of error. »
« The data continues to be pretty negative for Kamala Harris », reported Nate Silver yesterday afternoon, who concurs that the race is super tight but offers additional color. « There are now three recent high-quality national polls that show Donald Trump leading—a difficult circumstance for Harris, given Democrats’ Electoral College disadvantage—and her edge in our national polling average is down to 1.7 points. National polls don’t influence the model that much, and the race remains basically a toss-up, but it’s not hard to think of reasons that Trump could win.
