National party leaders believe Rep. Colin Allred has a real shot to beat GOP Sen. Ted Cruz.
Margaret Kanyusik had been to several political events at Backyard on Broadway, a restaurant in this South Texas city before she came to see Rep. Colin Allred, the Democratic nominee for Senate, address several dozen supporters here last week for an event the campaign billed as a “huddle.”
“I have been to that place when it has been more crowded and more enthusiastic,” said Kanyusik, a retiree and volunteer for the League of Women Voters.
Democrats are hoping they can generate a bit more enthusiasm for Allred with substantially more ambitious plans for Friday in Houston: A rally alongside Vice President Kamala Harris and Beyoncé. The event, aimed at drawing attention to Texas’ draconian anti-abortion laws, will place Allred at the center of the political universe as it becomes increasingly clear he may be among Democrats’ best hopes at retaining control of the Senate.
Senate Majority PAC, which is controlled by allies of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, announced Thursday it would spend $5 million on television ads in the state, their first foray in the race between Allred and unpopular incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz, who is being dragged down by both his infamous trip to Cancun during a 2021 snowstorm and his steadfast support for the strict anti-abortion laws Harris’ event is meant to highlight.
“In such an important election, Senate Majority PAC is determined to make sure Texans understand the choice facing them this November,” said JB Poersch, the group’s president. “That’s why we’re going on offense, so that in a few short months Texans can have a trusted, bipartisan senator in Colin Allred and can kick Cancún Cruz to the curb.”
Democratic internal polls have found Allred with small leads over Cruz, two sources who did not have permission to discuss the results said, though nonpartisan election forecasters still consider him a longshot – 538 gives him just an 18% chance of winning, while Split Ticket gives him a 27% chance. And the simple fact Democrats may need him to win a state where they have not triumphed in three decades to hold the Senate illustrates the party’s struggle with a body where white rural voters have massively disproportionate influence.
National Democrats continue to insist Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) is within the margin of error in his race against Republican Tim Sheehey, though GOP super PACs are confident enough to move some money out of the race. While public polling continues to show Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) with a small lead, the GOP insists businessman Bernie Moreno now has an advantage.
