Consumers and businesses may have nowhere to hide from Trump’s tariffs. So instead of waiting around, they’re trying to get ahead of new import taxes.
In the days after the election, I caught myself doing some strange Googling. Mostly it was low-grade curiosity about the economic implications of Donald Trump’s win — specifically, whether there was anything I could do to prepare for him to slap stiff tariffs on goods imported into the United States. I briefly weighed whether I should buy a car. Not because I actually want a car while living in New York City. But what if this is my last chance before prices go up? A news story about a potential hike in iPhone prices made me realize I had no idea when I last replaced mine. And even though I’m not much of a shopper, I wondered whether to buy a new pair of shoes.
I’m not alone in this light bout of tariff terror. Over the past month, « things to buy before tariffs » has become a breakout Google search, and there’s plenty of chatter about it on Reddit, too. Anecdotally, I’ve found that « what to do ahead of tariffs » keeps coming up in conversation — friends fretted about tariff-triggered inflation at an early-November Friendsgiving celebration, and my mom mentioned that her decision to finally buy a new car was triggered in part by worries that inflation will return under Trump. Companies are already talking about raising prices in anticipation of the new administration. The other day I got a marketing email from Jolie, which makes filtered showerheads, with an « important message » about tariffs. « If you’re considering buying a Jolie », the email said, « now is a great time to lock in our current prices. » The implication was clear: Buy now, before any tariffs take effect. I did not expect a TikTok-popular showerhead company to raise my blood pressure over prices, but here we are.
It’s unclear whether Trump will make good on his campaign promises to slap a 60% tariff on goods from China and tariffs of 10% to 20% on imports from everywhere else. And even if he does, it’s not clear whether they’ll fuel inflation, as many economists have warned. (The Yale Budget Lab estimates that Trump’s tariffs, as proposed, would drive up prices by as much as 5.1%, costing households an extra $7,600 a year.)
« We don’t know the nature, the magnitude, or the timing of these tariffs », says Greg Daco, the chief economist at EY-Parthenon. « So we don’t necessarily know the impact of the potential shocks on the economy. »
But what is clear is that American consumers and businesses are already freaking out over tariffs. « Everybody’s just in kind of a state of anxiety and scratching their heads », says Mary Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute, an economic think tank. « Everybody’s trying to protect themselves. They’re trying to figure out what to do. And frankly, no one knows. »
Let’s start with how businesses are planning for tariffs. For companies that import products or components from abroad, tariffs would be « the least surprising train wreck ever », says Ernie Tedeschi, the director of economics at the Yale Budget Lab, who previously worked for the Biden administration.
