OPINION | A trade deal with Japan appears to be at the front of the queue for the Trump administration, and it is likely to be one of the first trade negotiations to get going.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will meet with President Trump Friday in Washington, D. C., and a possible trade deal is near the top of their agenda.
Japan and the U. S. thought they had such a deal already, as part of the broader Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations. But Trump withdrew from the TPP before it could come into force.
With all the economic nationalist rhetoric coming from Trump and some of his advisers, new trade negotiations might seem unlikely at this point. How can the U. S. manage to free up trade in an atmosphere in which foreign companies and governments are constantly bashed as cheaters?
But if you parse the statements coming from the Trump folks carefully, what you find is criticism of many existing trade arrangements but positive statements about bilateral trade deals that are done properly.
Much of their criticism is actually directed at U. S. trade negotiators, not at trade deals, per se. In their view, it seems, a team of tough negotiators, in the mold of Trump, could devise a good trade deal that the president could sign off on.
In this context, what are the prospects for a U. S.-Japan free trade agreement? For many years, Japan was the United States’ biggest trade rival, and tensions were high. The situation has changed significantly, however, and the Japan-U. S. relationship is mostly positive these days for a number of reasons.
Japan’s economy has stagnated in recent years, and it seems like less of a threat. Japanese companies have invested heavily in the United States and are seen as good corporate citizens. Moreover, China’s rise has made it the focus of trade critics, letting Japan off the hook a bit.
In Congress, representatives of farm-heavy states see Japan as a lucrative export market.
