While Vladimir Putin plays games with the U. S. and Europe, other countries that will determine Russia’s future shouldn’ t be overlooked
Plenty of ink is being spilled over Russia’s contentious relations with the West these days, and with good reason. But while Russian President Vladimir Putin plays games with the U. S. and Europe — and continues a murky alliance with Syria and Iran — the other countries that will determine Russia’s future shouldn’ t be overlooked. Here are five you should be keeping tabs on.
China
Let’s start with the most obvious. Russia had hoped its eastern pivot towards China would make up for lost Western investment and trade ties in the wake of the Ukraine crisis of 2014. U. S./E. U. sanctions and Russian counter-sanctions are estimated to have cost Russia between 1 and 1.5 percent of its GDP in the first year alone; the IMF forecasts the hit could be as much as 9 percent over the medium term. And while China did indeed step up financing for Russian projects (Chinese investment in Russia grew by 172 percent in the first half of 2016) , it wasn’ t enough to overcome the losses in growth and financing that Western sanctions knocked off in 2016. Making matters worse, Beijing never endorsed Russia’s annexation of Crimea, as Moscow once hoped it would.
But that’s the thing—while China will sign more deals with Russia, it needs no part in Russia’s geopolitical games. China’s happy to do more business with Russia now that the Russians, with fewer options, have to give China favorable terms and prices. But the global status quo has been good to China, and Beijing wants to see it continue, albeit with some modifications; Russia wants to upend it entirely. In addition, China will continue to compete for influence with Russia, particularly in Central Asia. Don’ t expect China to become best friends with Russia anytime soon. Or ever.
Japan
Japan has been part of Russia’s Asia outreach for years now—partly to hedge against China, and partly out of hope that Japanese investment in Russia would lead to absorption of Japanese technology, experience and efficiency in Russian industry. While some of that did happen (especially in the energy and automotive sectors) , it never hit the levels the Kremlin had hoped.
But when discussing the future of Russia/Japan relations, it’s history and geopolitics that weigh most heavily. Tokyo and Moscow continue to dispute the status of Kuril Islands, a chain of four islands in the Pacific that both countries claim as their own.
