If, after all the fanfare, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un doesn’t actually launch missiles toward Guam, many may write the whole episode off as another of the North’s seemingly endless bluffs. But from Pyongyang’s perspective and in the eyes of some U…
If, after all the fanfare, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un doesn’t actually launch missiles toward Guam, many may write the whole episode off as another of the North’s seemingly endless bluffs. But from Pyongyang’s perspective and in the eyes of some U. S. military experts, Kim and his generals have already won this round.
Launch or not, Pyongyang has caused great drama and angst, riled U. S. President Donald Trump and alarmed America’s allies in Tokyo and Seoul. It could also set a precedent for more aggressive brinkmanship ahead.
It comes as no surprise then that on Tuesday, as North Korea’s state media released photos of Kim and his military officers examining the launch plan, replete with photos of the missiles’ flight path and a big satellite image of the U. S. territory’s Andersen Air Force Base, it also offered a seeming out.
Kim, it said, wants to « watch a little more » before making a decision.
The North’s plan is to launch four missiles into the waters around the U. S. Pacific territory: one to the north, one to the south, and one each east and west. Pyongyang is calling it an « enveloping fire » demonstration, but in military jargon it’s more commonly called « bracketing. » It was calculated to touch off a storm of anxiety region-wide.
But firing missiles into Guam’s exclusive economic zone, as the North threatened, would be an extremely risky move. « If they fire at the United States, it could escalate into war very quickly, » U. S. Defense Secretary James Mattis said Monday. « Yes, that’s called war, if they shoot at us. »
So, from the start, Pyongyang gave itself big exit ramps.
