The security situation on the Korean peninsula seems to be moving further away from Beijing’s preferred objectives. Of most concern are the uncontrollable risks engendered by North Korea stepping up the development of its nuclear weapons and missile capabilities. The prospect of rolling back the nuclearisation of the…
The security situation on the Korean peninsula seems to be moving further away from Beijing’s preferred objectives. Of most concern are the uncontrollable risks engendered by North Korea stepping up the development of its nuclear weapons and missile capabilities. The prospect of rolling back the nuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula has progressively faded away.
Since Kim Jong-un inherited power, Pyongyang has conducted four nuclear tests and more than 75 short- to intermediate-range ballistic missile tests. Many believe the missiles tested are intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of striking the US mainland — a significant advance.
The question now is how long Japan and South Korea will maintain their confidence in the US nuclear umbrella before moving to develop their own nuclear deterrence capabilities. Meanwhile, seeking to ratchet up military pressure on North Korea, the United States has conducted air operations over the Korean peninsula. It has also participated in military exercises with South Korea and Japan.
Despite US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s ‘four noes’ to reassure North Korea — that the United States will not seek regime change, the collapse of the regime, an accelerated reunification of the peninsula or an excuse to send the US military north of the 38th parallel — many in the United States, including a significant number in Congress, believe the time for negotiation with North Korea is over. President Trump has been called upon to follow through on his ‘maximum pressure’ policy, including pressing China to execute financial blocks and economic embargoes on North Korea.
Whenever tensions between Pyongyang and Washington are rising, so is the risk of miscalculation and inadvertent military confrontation. Trump’s petulant and unpredictable personal character should not be understated in such a tense atmosphere. His provocative ‘fire and fury’ remarks did nothing to deter Pyongyang but instead ratcheted up the tension. US deployment of the THAAD missile defence system in South Korea has not only undermined the strategic deterrence capabilities of both China and Russia, but has also strained relations between Beijing and Seoul.
The brawl over North Korea’s nuclear issue has also made Beijing’s relations with Washington more unpredictable.
