Administration objectives are still unclear, but maintaining the regional status quo may be the most realistic.
New reports suggest that the United States is set to maintain a significantly more assertive presence in the South China Sea to counter Chinese claims and activity in the region. While proponents believe that the military presence in the region was insufficient during the Obama Administration to deter China’s massive island construction campaign in the Spratly Islands, the reported proposals are unlikely to roll-back current Chinese positions. The Trump Administration still needs to clearly define its objectives in the South China Sea and what its desired status quo is, and how expanded military presence will achieve it without inadvertently provoking China to build up its position further.
Early remarks by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson during his confirmation hearings and follow-up comments by White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer implied that the United States might seek to block China’s access to the island bases it has built up in the last several years, especially among the reefs in the Spratly Islands, and militarily defend other territory from incursion. Many analysts feared position implied tactics that China could construe as acts of war, or could at least foment a major crisis until it was revealed recently that Secretary Tillerson had amended his own remarks to specify that the U. S. only needed to be able to block China’s access to its islands in the event of a conflict.
But before that revelation, Secretary of Defense James Mattis tempered concerns about provoking China by telling reporters on an official trip to Japan that there was no need for “military maneuvers” in the South China Sea. He emphasized that the disputes required exhaustive diplomatic resolution and not military action. And while he emphasized the role of the military in supporting diplomatic efforts, his remarks left some wondering if he was signaling that even current military presence might be scaled back.
However, reports on his private meetings with Japanese officials suggested the U. S. is actually likely to begin a more assertive presence in the region and conduct much more frequent Freedom of Navigation Operations.
