North Korea may be trying to get into a strong bargaining position, experts say.
SEOGWIPO, South Korea — If North Korea wanted to enter into negotiations, it might decide it first had to gain the upper hand in a hurry, and that it might conclude that the best way to do that was through shooting off one missile after another in rapid succession.
As an explanation for all these launches that North Korea is conducting, it seems at first blush like a stretch.
But a growing number of analysts with a background in talking to North Korean officials wonder whether the relentless pace of the North’s missile testing is designed to get Kim Jong Un’s regime into the strongest bargaining position before economic sanctions force it to return to the negotiating table.
“This is like taekwondo, ” said Peter Hayes, the executive director of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability, referring to the Korean martial art.
“This is the part where your opponent engages the spiral kick to the head with a bloodcurdling scream to put you off balance at the outset, ” said Hayes, who has been dealing with North Koreans for more than 20 years.
Kim has made it clear that he’s determined to acquirea missile capable of reaching the continental United States. He has overseen the launch of a dozen missiles in the past four months compared with the 16 fired during the entirety of his father’s 17-year-long reign.
After the latest launch, Kim said that “the Yankees should be very worried” about the North Korean capability.
But beyond the bombastic pronouncements and technical progress, some analysts see familiar signs that North Korea is ratcheting up the tensions before being forced to talk on American terms.
“The further they advance towards having an operational arsenal, the more they can get from outside powers just for a freeze when they return to the negotiating table, ” said Chun Yung-woo, a former South Korean nuclear negotiator with the North and former national security adviser.
With more and more sanctions being piled on North Korea, it is just a matter of time until the pressure becomes unbearable, he said.
“So before they’ re drawn back to the negotiating table, they have every reason to speed up their technical development, ” Chun said.
Diplomacy still seems a long way off.
The Trump administration has been talking about exerting “maximum pressure” on North Korea, and last weekend Defense Secretary Jim Mattis praised China ’s “renewed commitment” to leaning on North Korea. Senior administration officials have repeatedly said that the conditions for talks with North Korea are not right.
