Beijing has slapped bans on some trade with its troublesome neighbour but with Pyongyang firing off yet another round of missiles on the weekend there’s debate over just how effective the curbs will be
On January 1, Kim Jong-un announced to the world that North Korea was “getting close” to developing an intercontinental ballistic missile.
Seven months later, he reportedly watched as his country launched exactly such a device into the Sea of Japan. Three weeks later, it fired another.
Then on Saturday, Pyongyang sent up several short-range rockets for good measure, with one appearing to blow up immediately, according to the US military.
Just six months after moving into the White House, US President Donald Trump declared the launches “reckless and dangerous”, and called on China and the United Nations to apply tougher sanctions on North Korea to curb its nuclear programme.
In February, China announced it would ban coal imports from North Korea, in line with an earlier UN resolution.
While all of this was going on, 25-year-old Feng Yalong was busy selling seafood, mostly imported from North Korea, at the biggest fish market in Beijing. His clients, mostly chefs and restaurant owners in the Chinese capital and neighbouring Hebei province, went to him because they knew he would always have what they needed. At least, he used to.
On August 15, nine days after the UN Security Council approved tough new sanctions against North Korea, China extended its ban on imports from its reclusive neighbour to include iron, iron ore and seafood.
It was the worst possible news for Feng.
China extends ban on imports from North Korea in line with United Nations resolution
“I used to sell 1,500kg of North Korean shellfish a day, ” he said. “Now, almost nothing is coming over the border. Today, we only had 250kg.”
Chinese consumers started getting a taste for North Korean seafood about two years ago, Feng said, and the market boomed.
“North Korean shellfish is much cleaner, with hardly any sand on it, so the restaurants love it, ” he said, adding that he buys most of his stock through suppliers in northeastern China, close to the border with North Korea.
“But now, when the chefs and buyers come to the market looking for North Korean clams, we have to tell them we’ ve hardly got any.”
So how does a ban on seafood stop Kim Jong-un from launching missiles?
The idea behind the UN sanctions and China’s blockade on selected imports is that by starving North Korea of money, its leader will be unable to continue with his nuclear weapons programme.
In 2016, Pyongyang generated US$190 million from sales of seafood to China. In the second quarter of this year, sales totaled US$68 million.
China sanctions will cost North Korea US$1.5 billion, but won’ t curb Kim’s nuclear ambitions
The combined value of North Korea’s 2016 exports to China of coal, iron ore, lead ore and seafood – all of which are now banned by Beijing – was almost US$1.5 billion, or 60 per cent of its total exports. In the first half of this year, exports to China of those commodities totalled US$474.6 million.
The thinking seems to be that while some Chinese businesses, including Feng’s, might suffer as a result of the sanctions, by starving Kim Jong-un of export revenue he will be unable to fund his missile programme.
And all the experts agree that will work?
Clearly, lots of people do. The US, China and most of the rest of the world have given their support for the UN sanctions, but whether they will work remains a moot point. The problem is that people like Kim Jong-un do not like being told what to do.
Sun Xingjie, a Korean affairs expert from Jilin University, said a large proportion of North Korea’s earnings from exports was allocated to its military programmes.
“China’s ban this time will make Kim feel the pressure … but it might also spur him on, ” he said.
As Kim feels the growing threat from the international community he might be moved to hasten his nuclear programmes, as “that will be the only means he has to ensure his regime’s survival”, he said.
It’s a view shared by Dr John Park, director of the Korea Working Group at Harvard Kennedy School in the US.
