OPINION | Increasing the payload of South Korean missiles doesn’t improve anything beyond the chances of nuclear conflict.
North Korea’s recent test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and attainment of missile-ready nuclear warheads demonstrate its ability to strike the U. S. mainland with nuclear weapons. Adrift in the sea of subsequent analyses, however, is another important development: that South Korea and the United States will re-negotiate the bilateral missile guidelines that restrict Seoul’s missile capabilities.
Last eased in 2012, the previous deal to lower barriers on South Korean missiles was sharply criticized as ineffective, harmful to regional security dynamics, and contrary to global arms control efforts. While increasing missile capabilities in the North may now make bigger missiles in the South seem more reasonable, the legitimacy of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal today makes short-sighted strategies even riskier than before. Easing South Korean missile restrictions is not only harmful to long-term non-proliferation efforts — it is ineffective at defending against North Korean missiles and detrimental to efforts to de-escalate tensions.
The case for easing missile restrictions to South Korea appears logical at first glance. North Korea has significantly improved its missile delivery systems, made progress in the miniaturization and yield of its nuclear warheads and accelerated the rate of its missile development since the Obama administration agreed to the increase of South Korea’s missile range from 300km to 800km. To South Korea, these developments justify the further easing of restrictions on its missile capabilities as a measure of preventing further North Korean provocations and ensuring self-defense.
Additionally, Seoul’s argument benefits from the restraint and strategic awareness it appears poised to bring to the negotiating table. While the 2012 agreement focused on increasing the permitted range of the projectiles, Seoul now states “more weight will be given to the payload… than the missile range issue.”
In particular, South Korea seeks to double the maximum payload of its 800km missile to a full ton (roughly 900kg) . The shift from expanded missile range to increased payload should be more palatable to crucial regional players China and Japan, both of whom warily eyed South Korea’s previous bid to loosen missile restrictions.
