In discussions between the U. S. and China about reining in North Korea, one topic remains taboo: What would happen if Kim Jong Un’s regime collapses?
In discussions between the U. S. and China about reining in North Korea, one topic remains taboo: What would happen if Kim Jong Un’s regime collapses?
For years, China has rebuffed U. S. attempts to raise the topic at so-called Track 2 dialogue sessions between academics in each country’s foreign policy establishment, according to Bonnie Glaser, senior adviser for Asia at the Center for Strategic & International Studies in Washington, who has led the U. S. side in such talks. Attendees included people from Chinese government-affiliated research institutions and military officers, she said.
From China’s perspective, officially broaching the issue could alarm its neighbor, which has received Beijing’s backing since the Korean War in the 1950s. There’s also a fear that it would give the U. S. an advantage in one day reunifying the Korean peninsula on its terms.
“When we first started these efforts, the Chinese told us — and many other people, including U. S. officials — that if they engaged in such discussions with the United States it would come out, it would get leaked, North Korea would find out and they would retaliate,” Glaser said.
Still, as the U. S. and North Korea trade threats of military action and Kim — who is believed to be in his early 30s — develops nuclear weapons, observers are starting to game out worst-case scenarios. And no matter whether a military miscalculation, coup or other event prompts the demise of Kim, it may not be long before soldiers from the world’s two biggest economies come face-to-face. Nuclear Arsenal
The U. S. has about 28,500 troops stationed in South Korea, which has another 625,000 in its standing army and 3.1 million in reserve. China has roughly 2 million soldiers, and its Northern Theater Command bordering North Korea consists of at least three army units and three rocket units.
“If we intervene and the Chinese run into our people and if we run into their people, what are we going to do?” Bruce Bennett, a defense researcher at Rand Corp.
