«If they were enforced, the cap on oil would be devastating for North Korea’s haulage industry.»
Pyongyang
city civilians celebrate the successful completion of the
hydrostatic test for the intercontinental ballistic rocket
installation in this undated photo released by North Korea’s
Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in
Pyongyang. Reuters/KCNA
SEOUL (Reuters) — Newly proposed sanctions on North Korea could
have a significant effect on the isolated country’s already
struggling economy, analysts said ahead of an expected U. N.
Security Council vote on Friday, which will hinge on support from
China and Russia.
Tensions have been rising over North Korea’s nuclear and missile
programs, which it pursues in defiance of years of different U. N.
Security Council resolutions, with bellicose rhetoric from the
North and the White House.
But U. S. diplomats have made clear they are seeking a diplomatic
solution and have proposed a number of new, tougher sanctions
designed to ratchet up pressure on North Korean leader Kim Jong
Un.
North Korea regularly threatens to destroy South Korea, the
United States and Japan and says its weapons programs are
necessary to counter U. S. aggression. The United States stations
28,500 troops in the South, a legacy of the 1950-53 Korean War.
On Friday, a spokesperson for North Korea’s foreign ministry
called U. S. President Donald Trump’s recently released national
security strategy the latest American policy seeking to «stifle
our country and turn the entire Korean peninsula» into an outpost
of American hegemony.
He said Trump was seeking «total subordination of the whole
world».
United
States Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley speaks to
reporters at U. N. headquarters, Friday, Aug. 25,
2017. Associated Press/Seth
Wenig
The draft U. N. resolution, seen by Reuters on Thursday, seeks to
ban nearly 90 percent of refined petroleum product exports to
North Korea by capping them at 500,000 barrels a year and demand
the repatriation of North Koreans working abroad within 12
months.
It would also cap crude oil supplies to North Korea at 4 million
barrels a year, as well as ban a number of North Korean exports
such as machinery, lumber, and other products and resources.
«If they were enforced, the cap on oil would be devastating for
North Korea’s haulage industry, for North Koreans who use
generators at home or for productive activities, and for
(state-owned enterprises) that do the same,» said Peter Ward, a
columnist for NK News, a website that tracks North Korea.
The forced repatriation of foreign workers would also cut off
vital sources of foreign currency and investment not only for the
government but also for North Korea’s emerging market economy, he
said.
«If such sanctions were enforced, they would thus impede and
endanger North Korea’s economic development.»
Asked about the effects of sanctions before these latest
proposals were announced, Michael Kirby, who led a U. N. inquiry
into human rights abuses in North Korea, said cutting off fuel
imports would be «a very serious step».
«Cutting off oil, petroleum supplies would obviously have a very
big impact on the ordinary population,» he said.
Russia’s
President Vladimir Putin (L) shakes hands with his Chinese
counterpart Xi Jinping during the Asia Pacific Economic
Cooperation (APEC) forum Kim
Kyung-Hoon/Reuters
China, which supplies most of North Korea’s oil, has backed
successive rounds of U. N. sanctions but has resisted past U. S.
calls to cut off supplies to its neighbor.
Asked about the proposed new resolution on North Korea, Chinese
Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying called on all sides to
exercise restraint and to «strictly implement the current
relevant U. N. Security Council resolutions».
While not directly addressing the new proposals, Hua said that
China would maintain communications with all sides and supports
measures to «quickly create the necessary conditions to
peacefully resolve the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue through
talks».
Any move to curb exports of Chinese fuel to North Korea may have
limited impact after China National Petroleum
Corp suspended diesel and gasoline sales to its
northern neighbor in June over concerns the state-owned company
would not get paid.
Business has slowed steadily since then, with zero shipments
of diesel, gasoline and other fuel from China in October.
November data will be released on Monday.
Russia quietly boosted economic support for North Korea earlier
this year, and last week Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Igor
Morgulov said that Moscow was not ready to sign up to new
sanctions that would strangle the country economically.
China and Russia on Thursday asked for more time to consider a
U. S. proposal to blacklist 10 ships for transporting banned items
from North Korea, diplomats said. It was unclear how much more
time would be given.
Even if the proposed sanctions have an economic effect, it’s not
clear whether that would push Pyongyang to negotiate or stop its
weapons development, said Kim Sung-han, a former South Korean
vice foreign minister.
«We have had numerous — sometimes so-called toughest — sanctions
against North Korea over the past 25 years,» he said. «Almost
none have worked effectively to halt the regime’s military and
nuclear ambitions.»
FILE
PHOTO: An ice sculpture of the Olympic rings is seen during the
Pyeongchang Winter Festival in Pyeongchang Thomson Reuters
The additional sanctions would come as South Korean President
Moon Jae-in seeks to ease tensions ahead of the 2018 Pyeongchang
Winter Olympics in February. He has proposed delaying annual
joint military drills with the United States, which North Korea
sees as a preparation for invasion, until after the Games.
A foreign ministry spokesperson declined to comment until after
the Security Council vote on the resolution on Friday, but an
official at South Korea’s Unification Ministry said Seoul
supported global efforts to rein in North Korea even as it tries
to use the Olympics as a catalyst for peace negotiations.
«The North should have its own thinking about whether or not to
participate in the Olympics (regardless of sanctions),» the
Unification Ministry official told Reuters.
