Домой GRASP/Korea Trump only has one chance if North Korea calls his bluff

Trump only has one chance if North Korea calls his bluff

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Donald Trump’s meeting with Kim Jong Un could be the moment his credibility is on the line — and not just over North Korea, CNN’s Nic Robertson says.
Trump is an elected leader at the head of a tumultuous administration in a divided nation. He is a catalyst for change — but not necessarily master of the outcome.
Xi and Kim at least know they alone run the agenda at home. Even so, their meeting was no coming together of equals.
Even their toast hinted at the imbalance: Xi clasping a large glass of red wine and Kim a slender flute of white. It served the impression that Xi is the grown-up in the relationship, while Kim is an errant, spoiled child.
What propelled them together, however, was not the need for a drink, but Trump’s threat to visit military havoc on Kim, shake his confidence and winkle him out of his reclusiveness for a face-to-face meeting.
Xi, who views Trump’s diplomacy in Korea as meddling in his backyard, seems to have followed Trump’s lead and got his own one-on-one ahead of the US President.
Had Trump not raised the «fire and fury» specter of a pre-emptive strike on Pyongyang, Kim might not have been tempted out of his «Hermit Kingdom.»
In Beijing at Xi’s side, Kim talked about «denuclearization» of the Korean Peninsula — a first and a necessary tick in the box for Trump if he is to meet Kim.
But just because Trump precipitated this chain of events, it doesn’t mean he controls where it is going. He lacks the latitude enjoyed by Xi and Kim at home and falls short of their diplomatic know-how — especially in the region.
Xi has already shown his acumen by getting ahead of Trump and hosting Kim before the US leader’s own North Korean tête-à-tête. And Kim has played a smart card not biting China’s outstretched hand that helps keep his country afloat.
Kim knows he has to live with Xi — likely for longer than he’ll need to withstand Trump’s invective and the uncertainty of where it leads.
But Trump may not be on as short a leash as Kim or Xi imagines.

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