Democrats are so worried that their long-predicted «blue wave» will be dashed on the rocks of California’s top-two primary that the national…
Democrats are so worried that their long-predicted «blue wave» will be dashed on the rocks of California’s top-two primary that the national party is trying to generate momentum for their candidates any way they can—including spending to prop up Republicans.
National Democrats in Washington have spent millions of dollars over the last year to flip three key House seats in Southern California. However, Democrats have failed to turn fervent anti-Trump sentiment up and down the state into solid leads as voters head to the polls Tuesday.
The state’s «jungle primary,» in which the top two vote-getters regardless of party move on to compete in the general, has party Democrats so worried in one race they spent $110,000 to prop up John Gabbard, a Republican, in the 48th District, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.
That district is where a crowded field of candidates is vying to oust Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R., Calif.) whose outspoken support for Trump has turned into a liability in his district.
Rohrabacher and GOP state legislator Scott Baugh appear to be leading the pack, so the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent the six-figure sum boosting Gabbard, a virtual no-name Republican, in an attempt to split the GOP vote three ways so a Democrat can slip into the top two.
Democrats in the race are so divided among themselves that it is difficult to predict their own leading candidate. National Democrats have backed Harley Rouda, a real estate executive, while the California Democratic Party is officially supporting Hans Keirstead, a neuroscientist.
«Democrats are terrified about being locked out in the top-two primary, and they are doing everything and anything they can think of to avoid that outcome,» Baugh spokesman Matthew Cunningham said in an interview. «I’ve never seen the Democrats spending so much money in California trying to manipulate the Republican electorate.»
In the 39th congressional district, national Democrats have unsuccessfully tried to winnow the field by endorsing philanthropist Gil Cisneros and spending $828,000 on his behalf.
Two other competitive Democrats have remained in the race and have also spent seven figures. In the final weeks, the House Majority PAC, House Democrats’ main super PAC, has attacked two top GOP candidates, Shawn Nelson and Bob Huff, from the right. The attacks have tried to label Nelson a pension abuser and Huff as a tax hiker to depress the GOP vote.
Meanwhile, the House Majority PAC sent out another mailer aimed at driving up GOP votes for a second-tier Republican, immigration hardliner Phil Liberatore.
The mailer, sent to Republican and independent voters, ties Liberatore to Trump as a way to elevate his candidacy and siphon off votes from Nelson and Huff. It hits Liberatore for siding with Trump on a «bigger border wall,» opposition to sanctuary cities, and his endorsement of controversial former Maricopa County, Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio, a hero among GOP voters who want stronger immigration laws.
Bill Whalen, a longtime GOP strategist at Stanford’s Hoover Institution, said the Golden State’s jungle state primary has «basically thrown the political math book out the window.»
«You can make an argument for your candidate to win, and add to their voting base, or against your top opponent or to add to another candidate’s voting base: there are all kinds of crazy calculations,» he said.
In the final weeks before the primary, he said the top-two system is doing a great job in «driving both parties crazy» with extremely unpredictable outcomes.
After vowing to forge a path through California to take back the House majority, Democrats must perform well in at least two out of the three competitive districts they’ve targeted in Southern California.
«It’s hard to see the blue wave if Democrats end up in the low ebb in Southern California races,» he said. «If they get shut out of the 39th and 48th, you can argue that Republicans were simply better organized. But if they manage to underperform in the 49th as well—that’s a real problem for November,» he said.
National Democrats in the 49th district have not officially endorsed a candidate, although they have repeatedly encouraged Democrats to voluntarily bow out in order to avoid splitting the vote in the face of multiple competitive Republicans entering the primary.
A new SurveyUSA poll, shows that Republican Diane Harkey, a former state legislator and member of the Board of Equalization, has vaulted to the front of the pack in recent weeks, ahead of another Republican, state Assemblyman Rocky Chavez, who led polls in April.
The new poll, conducted a week before the election, has former Marine Col. Doug Applegate and Qualcomm heiress Sara Jacobs, both Democrats, tied for second with 11 percent of the vote each. Environmental lawyer Mike Levin trails just behind with 10 percent, edging out Chavez, who garnered 8 percent.
The outcome is extremely unpredictable with 13 percent of the vote undecided, according to the SurveyUSA poll.
A separate Democratic poll, released late last week, only adds to the uncertainty. It showed Levin with a narrow lead over Harkey, followed by Applegate, then Jacobs and Chavez, who were tied.
Even though no candidate in the district is officially benefiting from the DCCC’s backing, there are plenty of signs that national party leaders are supporting Levin over the others, including Applegate, who proved Issa was vulnerable by nearly beating him in 2016.
Rep. Adam Schiff (D., Calif.), Trump’s leading critic in the Russia probe, cut an advertisement for Levin, which the candidate had pinned to his Twitter page up until the last week of the race.
Democracy for America, the political action committee founded by former Democratic National Committee Chair Howard Dean, has also endorsed Levin’s candidacy.
Meanwhile, Democratic groups supporting Levin in late May sent out a mailer attacking Applegate for a restraining order his ex-wife won against him during their divorce.
