Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 12 hours.
3 a.m. Sunday, July 1, Japan time: U. S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 12 hours.
Tropical Storm Prapiroon is gradually picking up speed, headed northwest. Its forecast track continues taking it just west of Okinawa, leaving the burning question: Will the island see 58-mph destructive winds or will it not?
At 9 p.m., Prapiroon was 315 miles south of Kadena Air Base, trudging north at 8 mph and holding steady at 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts. If it remains on its present course, Prapiroon will pass 77 miles west of Kadena at 10 p.m. Sunday, sporting 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts at storm’s center.
But almost like a magnet, Prapiroon’s more nasty quadrants, northeast and southeast, will pass closer to Kadena than the west ones. Almost invariably, the eastern quadrants are meaner, pulling humidity, heat and stronger storm rings than the western ones.
As Prapiroon approaches Okinawa, its radius of 58-mph winds are forecast to extend 81 miles away from center and the 40-mph radius 184 miles from center in the northeast quadrant. The 58-mph radius, of course, features the more destructive winds, and Kadena sits right at the edge of that 58-mph wind loop, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
In short, Kadena can very easily expect destructive winds Sunday afternoon and evening that might warrant upgrading to Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E. Lockdown mode. Everyone stay indoors until the danger has passed.
Then again, perhaps not. All of that could change. Forecast models agree on a track taking Prapiroon west of Okinawa, but are scattered all over the lot from late Monday on.
The good news is that Prapiroon might not intensify into a typhoon until well after it passes Okinawa.
7 p.m. Saturday, June 30, Japan/Korea time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for U. S. bases on Okinawa, courtesy of Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight. It does appear as if Okinawa will experience sustained destructive 58-mph winds Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.
— Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 9 a.m. Sunday.
— Onset of 58-mph sustained winds: 3 p.m. Sunday.
— Peak 58-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts for Kadena, 69-mph gusts elsewhere: 5 p.m. Sunday.
— Winds subsiding below 58-mph sustained: 3 a.m. Monday.
— Winds subsiding below 40-mph sustained: 9 a.m. Monday. 6 p.m. Saturday, June 30, Japan/Korea time: The good news, if there is such a thing regarding Pacific tropical cyclones, is Tropical Storm Prapiroon might wait to become a Category 1-equivalent typhoon than previously forecast.
But that doesn’t mean Okinawa is out of the woods. Will the island get destructive 58-mph sustained winds? Or won’t it?
That appears to be the $64,000 question. The southwest edges of Okinawa appear to be barely inside Prapiroon’s 50-knot forecast wind loop, according to the latest from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
And Prapiroon is moving so slowly … ever so slowly … that forecast passage of Okinawa might not come until Sunday evening now. Stated another way, the only thing certain is… uncertainty.
Same goes for Korea. It’s fairly certain that Prapiroon will make landfall over the Peninsula’s southern edges; the only question being, where will it go from there?
Earlier, Osan and Kunsan Air Bases appeared to be in the crosshairs; now, the forecast track seems to take Prapiroon much closer to Korea’s southeastern Area IV bases, Camps Walker, George and Henry and K-2 Air Bsae in Daegu, Chinhae Naval Base and the tinier installations in Busan, along Korea’s southeastern coast.
Here’s what we do know at this point, knowing it all can change as we move along:
At 5:30 p.m., Prapiroon was 374 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, crawling northwest at 5 mph, holding steady at 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts. U. S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2.
If it remains on its present course, Prapiroon is forecast to pass 71 miles west-southwst of Kadena at 10 p.m. Sunday, packing 63- to 69-mph sustained winds and 81- to 86-mph gusts at storm’s center.
Prapiroon is due to intensify into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon about 18 hours after passing Kadena, peaking at 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts. Please check previous posts for the wind-forecast timeline; keep in mind, that could change also.
It should maintain that intensity as it slams into Korea’s southern coast about mid-morning Tuesday.
JTWC projects Prapiroon to rapidly decay as it moves over the southern mountains, then pass 85 miles east-southeast of Kunsan Air Base at 10 a.m. Monday, perhaps sparing it the storm’s full fury.
But it should come within 20 miles of Daegu, 40 miles northeast of Chinhae and 69 miles northwest of Busan two hours later. Area IV bases remain in TCCOR 4.
But the forecast track has wobbled quite a bit the past couple of days. Forecast models remain spread somewhat. PST will keep an eye on it. 3:40 p.m. Saturday, June 30, Japan time: With elevated tropical cyclone conditions of readiness possible in the coming hours and days, here’s a guide to remind those who’ve been around awhile and tailor made for newcomers. What those TCCORs mean and what to do when they’re issued. 2:30 p.m. Saturday, June 30, Japan time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for U. S. bases on Okinawa, courtesy of Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:
— Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 3 a.m. Sunday
— Onset of 58-mph sustained winds: 1 p.m. Sunday
— Peak 58-mph sustained winds, 69-mph gusts: 5 p.m. Sunday.
— Winds diminishing below 58-mph sustained: 8 p.m. Sunday
— Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained: 3 a.m. Monday.
U. S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2. Expect an upgrade early Sunday morning. Sustained 40-mph winds or greater meet the critiera for TCCOR 1-C to be declared; 58-mph sustained winds or greater, TCCOR 1-E. Noon Saturday, June 30, Japan time: U. S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2.
Destructive sustained winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 24 hours. Time for cleaning up around the office and yard and getting that last-minute shopping done.
Be prepared to stay indoors when TCCOR 1-C and 1-E are issued Sunday.
8:15 a.m. Saturday, June 30, Japan time: Here’s the latest wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight. It’s likely U. S. bases will enter Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency) by Sunday afternoon. Here’s what to expect:
Kadena’s weather flight forecast calls for between 2 to 4 inches of rain through Monday, perhaps beyond.
7 a.m. Saturday, June 30, Japan time: Tropical Storm Prapiroon continues moving very slowly northwest. Its forecast track has veered slightly closer to Okinawa – now projected to be 67 miles west at 4 p.m. Sunday, a bit later than previously reported, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
Prapiroon should reach Category 1-equivalent strength as it reaches Okinawa, 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at center as it roars past, and maintain severe tropical storm strength as it picks up forward speed, north over Jeju Island, then making landfall over the southwest coast of Korea late Monday evening.
At 3 a.m., Prapiroon was 451 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, crawling north-northwest at 5 mph, holding steady at 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts. Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Prapiroon to speed up as Saturday progresses, rumbling past Okinawa Sunday afternoon and peaking at 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts early Monday morning after it exits Okinawa.
U. S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Expect that to be upgraded by mid-day or afternoon Saturday to TCCOR 2, depending on Prapiroon’s track and movement, and possibly TCCOR 1 early Sunday morning. U. S. bases in Korea’s Area IV remain in TCCOR 4; expect upgrade to TCCOR 3, along with TCCORs being set for bases along the west coast.
Rain and gusty winds remain forecast for the entire weekend into Monday on Okinawa. Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight calls for rain, showers and scattered thunderstorms, with easterly winds up to 40 mph and gusts up to 51 Sunday morning, then southeasterly winds up to 39 mph with gusts between 66 and 79 mph Sunday after, gradually decreasing Monday.
Prapiroon is forecast to move through Korea later than previously forecast, 30 miles east of Kunsan Air Base and Osan Air Base, 80 miles west of Daegu, 28 miles east of Camp Humphreys and 40 miles east of Yongsan Garrison between midnight Monday and 7 a.m. Tuesday.
Much of this could change, depending on Prapiroon’s forward speed and track. Forecast models are in general agreement on Prapiroon moving northwest, but how quickly is still open to question.
12:30 a.m. Saturday, June 30, Japan/Korea time: Again, Tropical Storm Prapiroon’s forecast track has edged further west of Okinawa, which could avoid the storm’s inner nastiness, if the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest track holds.
But the weekend should continue to be a gusty, rainy, all-around nasty one, according to local military and Japanese forecasts. And Korea’s southwest coach remains right in Prapiroon’s crosshairs for a Monday afternoon arrival. Some holiday weekend!
At midnight, Prapiroon was 463 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base and has started to turn northwest, moving at 6 mph and has intensified to 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts.
If Prapiroon remains on its current course, it’s due to pass 84 miles west-southwest of Kadena at 1 p.m. Sunday, packing 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at center. Equal to a Category 1 hurricane. But far enough from Kadena that it might not feel its full fury.
U. S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3; that could change, either accelerating to TCCOR 2 or reverting to TCCOR Storm Watch, depending on Prapiroon’s future movements.
Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight forecast still calls for 30-mph sustained winds with gusts up to 70 mph along with rain, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms throughout the weekend. Japanese forecasts call for similar conditions lasting into Tuesday.
As Prapiroon moves northwest of Okinawa, it’s forecast to peak at 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts and start to move rapidly toward Korea’s southwest coast.
