Shinzo Abe is on the cusp of a remarkable political recovery. He appears to be on track to become the longest-serving prime minister in Japanese history.
TOKYO — Only a few months ago, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe appeared to be in danger of losing his job as a series of cronyism scandals dragged his popularity to perilous lows.
To make matters worse, President Donald Trump was ratcheting up trade tensions with Japan, a long-term security ally, exposing the fragility of a personal relationship that Abe had worked hard to establish since Trump was elected in 2016.
Yet Abe is on the cusp of a remarkable political recovery. After stabilizing his position in opinion polls, he has emerged as the clear front-runner in a party leadership vote due next month, according to experts.
Securing another three-year term as head of the dominant center-right party would put Abe on track to become the longest-serving prime minister in Japanese history.
Backroom factional politics within his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) are “lining up in Abe’s favor,” said Kristi Govella, an assistant professor at the School of Pacific and Asian Studies at the University of Hawaii at Mānoa — even as tariff disputes with the U. S. cast a shadow over Japan’s most significant international relationship.
“Given the volatility of recent American foreign policy under the Trump administration, it was inevitable that Abe would experience ups and downs in his relationship with the U. S. president,” she told NBC News. “More than in any personal rapport with Trump, Abe’s advantage lies in his strength of expertise and skill on foreign policy issues in comparison to most other Japanese politicians.”
Abe is the second-longest serving leader in the G-7 after German Chancellor Angela Merkel. He wants to maintain pressure on North Korea until the regime takes concrete steps to denuclearize.
Abe has also helped to revive the trade pact known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which seemed to be at risk when Trump withdrew the U. S. from the original 12-country deal .
In both security and economics, Govella said, Abe had “a long track record of almost singularly strong foreign policy leadership, and particularly in times of uncertainty in international politics, the Japanese people see this as a valuable asset in a leader.”
Abe has dominated Japanese politics ever since he led the LDP to a landslide victory in the general election in 2012. He had a brief earlier stint as prime minister, from 2006 to 2007, but resigned because of unpopularity and personal health concerns.
Abe’s grip on power began to slip again last year as a result of twin scandals over alleged favoritism.
One involved a huge discount on state-owned land granted to a nationalistic educational group that was closely linked to Abe’s wife, Akie. The first lady had been named as the honorary principal of a proposed new elementary school before the controversy arose.
The other scandal hinged on suspected preferential treatment for Japan’s first new veterinary school in more than 50 years.
