Patrick Mahomes looks to extend a record-setting start; the Packers hope to rebound in Washington; and Los Angeles teams play each other for the first time since 1994.
People tend to like touchdowns and close games, so this N.F.L. season has truly delivered. The N.F.L. has produced the most touchdowns, and the second most overall points, through two weeks of any season in its history, and according to the league, 25 of the 32 games have been within one score at some point in fourth quarter. For those who like to factor in drama, there have even been nine fourth-quarter comebacks.
This week the Rams are trying to prove they are the team to beat in the N.F.L., while Patrick Mahomes and Ryan Fitzpatrick are trying to show their hot starts are not just a fluke, and Matt Patricia is going up against his old boss, Bill Belichick. A reasonable assumption: Lots of touchdowns, lots of points and more than a few close games.
Here is a look at this week’s schedule, with all picks made against the point spread.
Last week’s record: 10-6
Overall record: 21-10-1
49ers at Chiefs, 1 p.m., Fox
The football world has struggled to quantify just how incredible Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been over the season’s first two weeks, but one statistic sums it up best: He set a record for touchdown passes through the first three starts of a career — 10.
The reason that’s especially notable is that Mahomes didn’t throw a single touchdown pass in his first start, which came in the final game of last season. So even after he spotted every quarterback in N.F.L. history a game, he still came out on top.
Mahomes’s 10 touchdowns lead the N.F.L., and the Chiefs (2-0) look unstoppable on offense. They have been so wildly entertaining that little attention has been paid to the fact that their defense has allowed 217 more yards than their offense has gained. Provided Mahomes throws from four to six touchdown passes every week — and no interceptions — a yardage deficit like that can be manageable. But should he regress to the mean even slightly, the jig could be up.
Enter the 49ers (1-1), who have their own young quarterback to be excited about in Jimmy Garoppolo and the N.F.L.’s leading rusher in Matt Breida. San Francisco has underwhelmed so far, but if Marquise Goodwin returns on offense, and Reuben Foster makes his season debut on defense, this game might be a lot closer than Las Vegas has predicted. Pick: 49ers +6.5
Chargers at Rams, 4:05 p.m., CBS
Scoring more than 30 points in each of their first two games was hardly surprising for the Rams (2-0), who had the top-scoring offense in the N.F.L. last season and should only benefit from the addition of receiver Brandin Cooks and another year of development from receiver Cooper Kupp. The question is whether the team’s defense, which added several stars this off-season, is really as good as suggested by the 13 total points it has allowed thus far.
This first battle between teams from Los Angeles since 1994 will serve as a good test of how the Rams perform against a top-tier offense. Quarterback Philip Rivers and the Chargers (1-1) are fairly certain to do more damage than Oakland or Arizona managed, but should the Rams’ defense continue to match their offense, the rest of the league might want to call it a season. Pick: Rams -7
Patriots at Lions, 8:20 p.m., NBC
There are plenty of reasons this game is a top-tier matchup, but none of them have to do with the teams’ quality of play so far this season. The Patriots (1-1) have followed up last year’s Super Bowl loss with a narrow victory over Houston and a fairly embarrassing loss to Jacksonville. That’s still better than the Lions (0-2), who have allowed an ugly 78 points.
Among the plot points to watch:
If Patricia beats his old boss, it would certainly make up for a disappointing first two weeks of the season, but expecting two bad games in a row from Tom Brady and the Patriots seems greedy. Pick: Patriots -6.5
Packers at Redskins, 1 p.m., Fox
The Packers (1-0-1) want to believe that a roughing-the-passer call against Clay Matthews cost them a victory last week. While they have a point, they are ignoring the fact that Green Bay needed a blocked punt for a touchdown, and a performance so horrible by the opposing kicker that he was immediately released by the team, to come away with a tie. Close games and frustration are likely to define the Packers’ season as long as Aaron Rodgers is severely limited in his movements because of a knee injury. The veteran superstar gives Green Bay a far better chance of winning than his backup, DeShone Kizer, but either way a decent team like Washington (1-1) is a tough matchup on the road. Pick: Redskins +3
Jets at Browns, 8:20 p.m., NFL Network
If the Browns (0-1-1) seemed cursed to continue their winless streak with a hard-luck tie in Week 1, that feeling only intensified in Week 2, when Zane Gonzalez missed an extra point and a field goal in the closing minutes, denying Cleveland 4 potential points in a 3-point defeat. It was the type of heartbreaker a franchise occasionally needs in order to end up 1-32-1 over two-plus seasons. Now facing the Jets (1-1), who were terrific in Week 1 and considerably less so in Week 2, the Browns find themselves favored. A key to justifying that faith from Las Vegas would be Tyrod Taylor’s rediscovering the accuracy he was known for in the past. Pick: Browns -3
Colts at Eagles, 1 p.m., Fox
If fans of the Colts (1-1) seemed excited about the return of Andrew Luck in Week 1, just wait until Philadelphia fans see Carson Wentz take the field for the Eagles (1-1). It’s hard to imagine a team’s fan base being more excited about the benching of the reigning Super Bowl M. V. P., but the Philadelphia faithful seem to have struck a healthy balance between being thankful to Nick Foles for the upset over the Patriots and being realistic about how much better their team is with Wentz on the field. The question now is if Wentz can do all of the remarkable things that he did on the field before last year’s devastating knee injury. Pick: Colts +6.5
Saints at Falcons, 1 p.m., Fox
The Saints (1-1) were expected to miss running back Mark Ingram (suspended for the first four games over a test for performance-enhancing drugs) on offense. But unless he plans to play defense when he returns, New Orleans has bigger problems. The Saints have allowed 868 total yards through two games, losing to Tampa Bay and just barely beating Cleveland. Now they go on the road to face the Falcons (1-1), a team with an offense that puts those other two teams to shame. Pick: Falcons -3
Titans at Jaguars, 1 p.m., CBS
The Titans (1-1) are looking at starting either a severely limited Marcus Mariota (elbow injury) or a severely limited Blaine Gabbert (overall ability) against the Jaguars (2-0), who just rode Blake Bortles and their strong defense to a fairly easy win over the Patriots. Pick: Jaguars (off)
Bengals at Panthers, 1 p.m., CBS
The Bengals (2-0) are off to an incredible start, especially on offense, and while the Panthers (1-1) have not produced quite as many points, there is every reason to believe that this game will be a high-scoring affair. Cincinnati’s Andy Dalton and A. J. Green have looked as good as any quarterback-receiver pair in the N.F.L. besides the Buccaneers’ Ryan Fitzpatrick and DeSean Jackson, but Carolina is rightly favored at home. Pick: Panthers -3
Bills at Vikings, 1 p.m., CBS
If not for a cringe-worthy performances by their place-kicker, the Vikings (1-0-1) would be 2-0. To try to avoid such a fate again, they signed Dan Bailey, the second-most accurate kicker in N.F.L. history. Things aren’t quite so rosy for the Bills (0-2).
