Every world-ending disaster flick has a catalyst, an inciting event — be it a meteorite impact, alien invasion, some doomsday climate scenario, a Hollywood…
Every world-ending disaster flick has a catalyst, an inciting event — be it a meteorite impact, alien invasion, some doomsday climate scenario, a Hollywood comeback by Pauly Shore.
For the San Francisco 49ers, that initiator of catastrophe was a scramble by QB Jimmy Garoppolo that resulted in a season-ending knee injury. His knee buckled like a skyscraper in an apocalyptic earthquake. He bounced off a defender and hit the ground like a rogue comet that crossed paths with Earth. And now we have to watch as the volcanic fallout slowly chokes the life out of the 49ers’ season, smothering the fantasy hopes of surrounding players.
It is a Roland Emmerich-scale calamity. The big-screen master of disaster — who has directed a series of campy world-ending films like “Independence Day,” “Day After Tomorrow” and “2012” — couldn’t have scripted a more dire fantasy scenario.
Recall, the 49ers were 1-10 when Garoppolo inherited the starting job last season. They finished 6-10. They had scored 15 points or fewer in seven of their 11 games before Jimmy G. They scored 25 or more in four of their last five.
Marquise Goodwin had three of his four best games with Jimmy G last season. Matt Breida’s three best career games came in the final two games of 2017 and Week 2 of this season, all with Garoppolo.
Barring an unlikely and shocking turn of events, C. J. Beathard will be the starter for the foreseeable future. From a fantasy perspective, this is sort of like combining a global superstorm with a volcanic eruption during an alien invasion.
With Garoppolo, the 49ers averaged 27.1 points over nine games. In five games with Beathard as a starter, they averaged 14.8. The fewer points a team scores, the fewer fantasy points players on those teams score.
This is particularly true for those on the receiving end of Beathard passes. Niners WRs collectively averaged nine more fantasy points per game with Garoppolo than they did with Beathard. George Kittle, the only tight end of fantasy interest, averaged 7.3 with Garoppolo and 3.4 with Beathard.
There is a sliver of good news. Running backs scored more with Beathard. The top two RBs during this period averaged a combined 10.1 with Garoppolo but 13.5 with Beathard.
Yet Breida was just coming into his own this year, from backing up Carlos Hyde last season to leading the NFL in rushing entering Week 3. His breakout now could be postponed, but don’t drop him or Alfred Morris because a rise in carries should offset a drop in efficiency. They can still be fantasy contributors, even with a lower ceiling.
Downgrade Marquise Goodwin to a bye-week Flex option until he proves otherwise. Garcon had been disappointing thus far, so expect about the same.
For Garoppolo replacements, don’t trade the farm for a new QB. Instead, plow waivers for Andy Dalton, Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen or Ryan Tannehill and be prepared to stream week to week. No need to make a disaster worse than it is.
Baker Mayfield QB, Browns
Looked solid if not spectacular in relief after Tyrod Taylor suffered a concussion Thursday. Has ability to tack on fantasy points on the ground. Brings energy and spark that can ignite entire offense.
Sony Michel RB, Patriots
We’re not worried about his underwhelming statistical line. His role is growing in an offense that will score in bunches in the coming weeks.
Le’Veon Bell RB, Steelers
With talks of a potential trade, worth checking to see if he can be had on the cheap, just in case he does land on new team and ends his holdout. But only if you have expendable roster spot and Bell price is heavily discounted.
Tyler Boyd WR, Bengals
Perhaps Week 2 wasn’t an anomaly. Nice bye-week help if available for this week against weak Falcons pass D.
Josh Allen QB, Bills
Call us skeptical that the Bills can repeat their surprising Sunday performance. Reminder: Buffalo has no offensive weapons, meaning Allen would have to be a weekly hero. We’re not comfy going there yet.
Adrian Peterson RB, Redskins
Throwback monster game Sunday vs. the Packers. But we expect veteran legs to tire as season wears, and he has rough fantasy playoff schedule. Sell at peak value.
Rashaad Penny RB, Seahawks
Rookie surged ahead in carries Week 2, then disappeared Sunday. Suspect O-line, apparently still behind Chris Carson on depth chart, and Mike Davis still stealing carries. Expendable in bye-week crunch.
Jordy Nelson WR, Raiders
Last week, it was Amari Cooper. This week, it was Nelson. The unpredictability goes back to last year with QB Derek Carr. Find a buyer and use the big game as a selling point.
