South Korea’s patient approach may be politically risky, but it is strategically safe. An unprovoked attack from the Kim regime is deeply implausible.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in traveled to Pyongyang Tuesday to meet again with North Korea leader Kim Jong-un. It was his third summit with Kim this year, and the first time in more than a decade a South Korean president has visited the North. Given our close ties to South Korea and pursuit of peace on the peninsula, this will be a meeting for the United States to watch.
Moon’s administration expressed high hopes in advance of the trip. “We will not let this heartfelt opportunity slip through,” said his Defense Minister Song Young-moo at a defense forum in Seoul Thursday. “Returning to our 70-year history of conflict and hatred is not an option.”
The aim, as South Korean National Security Council Director Chung Eui-yong put it, is to work with the international community to “provide North Korea with all the support and encouragement to make the right choices for itself.” Hawks and hardliners have demonstrated their approach to be a “total failure,” Moon’s administration argues. Now it is time for a gradual tack, a pragmatic effort to coax Pyongyang slowly but surely into some semblance of normalcy and peace.
One possible concrete outcome of this latest Moon-Kim summit is a “ liaison office ” between Seoul and Pyongyang, the first such permanent communication link between the two governments in more than half a century. It’s not denuclearization, but it’s a start.
Moon’s patient approach may be politically risky, but it is strategically safe. An unprovoked attack from the Kim regime is deeply implausible given Kim’s survivalist aims and the powerful deterrence provided by U. S. military might. Those factors combine to put time on Moon’s side: North Korea already has nuclear weapons but almost certainly will not use them unless attacked. This means negotiations from this point can only make South Korea (and her ally, America) more secure.
Whether or not the diplomacy is “heartfelt,” as Song put it, it is certainly an opportunity that must be seized.
