Домой GRASP/Japan China-Japan ties at ‘historic turning point’ after Shinzo Abe’s visit, but can...

China-Japan ties at ‘historic turning point’ after Shinzo Abe’s visit, but can the goodwill hold?

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Japanese prime minister’s trip aimed to reset relations amid a history of bitter grievances, disputes and rivalrySides agreed to set aside political differences, boost economic ties and promote free trade
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s latest China visit marked a major effort to reset the tumultuous relations between the two Asian giants amid a backdrop of historical grievances, territorial disputes in the East China Sea and geopolitical rivalry in the wake of Beijing’s rapid ascendancy in the region.
In the first official visit by a Japanese leader since 2011, Abe, who wrapped up his three-day trip to Beijing on Saturday, appeared to have achieved his goal of putting ties back on track after a seven-year nadir.
Climaxing Beijing and Tokyo’s efforts over the past year to repair their troubled ties, both sides agreed to set aside their political differences and vowed to boost economic ties and promote free trade amid growing global uncertainty and protectionism.
Amid trade tensions with Washington, the two sides signed over 500 business deals with a total value of more than US$2.6 billion, ranging from infrastructure, energy and car projects to a US$30 billion currency swap pact.
They also agreed not to aim threats or direct aggression at each other and resolved to increase high-level diplomatic and military exchanges through constructive dialogue amid speculation about a planned visit to Japan next year by President Xi Jinping.
Abe said the trip underscored a “historic turning point” in bilateral relations that had hit rock bottom.
“Switching from competition to collaboration, bilateral relations have entered a new phase,” he told reporters after “frank” talks with Premier Li Keqiang on Friday. “Japan and China are neighbours and partners and we have to avoid becoming threats to each other,” he said.
The visit came in the midst of rapid changes in the global order as a shift in power dynamics – years in the making – plays out among a rising China and the existing giants in world affairs, including the US and Japan, which China overtook as the world’s second-largest economy in 2010.
More importantly, the trip coincided with the spiralling tariff war between Beijing and Washington, and a looming clash over national interests that went far beyond trade frictions under US President Donald Trump’s “America first” strategy.
As a result, Abe, who was labelled an “unwelcome person” by Chinese officials five years ago, was treated with unusual hospitality, encouraged to take part in lengthy talks and feted with lavish banquets with both Xi and Li.
Top Chinese leaders were unusually straightforward in their descriptions of the sensitive timing of Abe’s visit.
In a meeting with Abe on Friday, Xi said both countries should move ties in a “new historic direction” while “instability and uncertainties are growing” across the globe.
Xi urged Abe to work with China, noting that both countries “have been sharing wider and more pluralist common interests and common concerns” – a veiled reference to an era of trying times and relations with Trump’s White House.
Although neither side unveiled further details, it is widely believed that Abe extended an invitation personally to Xi to visit Japan when the Chinese leader attends the Group of 20 summit of developed and emerging economies in Osaka in June.
If accepted, it would be the first visit by a Chinese leader to Japan since Xi’s immediate predecessor Hu Jintao’s 2008 trip.
Although Xi and Abe have met on at least eight occasions at multilateral events, Abe’s visit last week was the first in the form of an official visit by either side since both men took office in 2012.
Pundits believe that although hardly any breakthroughs were reached on contentious bilateral issues, Abe’s Beijing trip was still of symbolic significance for both China-Japan ties and international politics in the Trump era.
Sino-Japanese relations, like Beijing’s love-hate relationship with Washington, have their intrinsic problems, according to Yun Sun, East Asia Programme senior associate at the Washington-based Stimson Centre. The list includes the countries’ wartime history, territorial disputes in the East China Sea, deep-rooted distrust and hostility, regional competition and the US-Japan military alliance.
“The political achievement of the trip lies in its symbolic significance,” Sun said. “After seven years of nadir, Sino-Japanese relations are finally improving. And that by itself is an achievement for both leaders.”
Although “there are conditions and needs for both Japan and China to improve their relations now”, they “by no means remove the points of friction between the two, and those frictions will come up again in the future”, Sun said.

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