Variety’s film awards editor gives his final predictions for the Oscar nominations on March 15, which can be led by Netflix or «Nomadland.»
If you’re reading this the day after our issue hits newsstands, the Oscar voting period is now closed. So where does it all stand? The Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards gave their top prize to Chloé Zhao’s “Nomadland,” which solidified its front-runner status. Jason Woliner’s “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” received boosts from winning the Globes’ best picture comedy prize and nabbing a surprise Producers Guild of America nomination. Still, it’ll be tricky to see the film picking up the broad support needed to land a nom in the Academy’s top category. It does, however, help star Maria Bakalova, who has become a darling of this year’s quarantine campaign trail. Netflix walks in with multiple options, but it’s unclear how many nods it will be able to actually secure. Aaron Sorkin’s “The Trial of the Chicago 7” is the best bet to challenge “Nomadland” and could lead the day’s tally. George C. Wolfe’s “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” and David Fincher’s “Mank” have landed all the required elements of a best picture nominee. Still, it hasn’t been intensely apparent whether they have a passionate following among AMPAS voters. In the case of “Mank,” when the PGA Awards snubbed Paul Greengrass’ “News of the World,” it made it evident that the two films may be drinking from the same awards well, so to speak. An old-fashioned Western and an old-Hollywood movie definitely speak to the same Academy voter demographic. However, the international crowd may tilt the scale in other ways.
