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How the Virginia Election Killed Democrats' Turnout Theory

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Among the many takeaways from the Virginia gubernatorial race this week is a notable contradiction of Democratic orthodoxy.
Among the many takeaways from the Virginia gubernatorial race this week is a notable contradiction of Democratic orthodoxy, one of the party’s guiding principles in recent years: That higher turnout benefits Democrats. Republicans typically agree, and in the last decade they have pushed voter ID laws, sought to limit absentee voting, and put up other barriers to suppress turnout — all with the stated purpose of combating fraud, though a growing number have admitted they believe voting restrictions help them win. But Republican Gov.-elect Glenn Youngkin won on Tuesday amid the highest turnout in a gubernatorial race since 1997. And he did so in a blue state, where prior to this week Democrats had won four of the last five gubernatorial elections and all statewide elections since 2012. Youngkin’s victory was no fluke either — it came alongside Republican gains in the House of Delegates, where the party picked up at least five seats and erased the Democratic majority. Politicos have been quick to place blame for Democrats’ losses on President Joe Biden, who won Virginia last year by 10 points, and infighting among Democrats in the U.S. House and Senate. But whatever the reason, what is clear is that high turnout didn’t prove to be a boon for Democrats even in a state that has recently favored the left. In 2019, Democrats won control of both chambers of the Virginia State House. With Democratic Governor Ralph Northam already seated, that gave Democrats what would prove to be a short-lived trifecta — full control of the state government — which they would use to enact a number of voting reforms. Experts have credited high voter turnout this year in part to those reforms, which included repealing the state’s voter ID law, enacting automatic voter registration for anyone receiving a driver’s license, allowing 45 days of no-excuse absentee voting, eliminating the need for a witness signature on absentee ballots and making Election Day a holiday.

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