California will stand as a notable exception across the country because its maps are expected to yield at least seven competitive seats — as well as a wild scramble for incumbents as they try to figure out what districts to run in.
CNN spoke to more than a dozen political strategists, redistricting experts and campaign aides from both parties as California’s congressional maps were being revised and refined over the past few weeks to gather their perspectives on how the state’s most competitive races are shaping up. The Golden State’s redistricting commission approved final maps late Monday night, drawing a total of 52 districts — one fewer than in the past because of slower population growth. Overall the map still favors Democrats, who hold 42 of the state’s current congressional seats, compared to 11 held by Republicans. But Republicans are bullish about their prospects for pickups in 2022 because of the difficult political climate Democrats are facing. In 2020, Republicans flipped four of the state’s congressional districts, including the special election win of GOP Rep. Mike Garcia in the 25th District, which covers portions of northern Los Angeles County and is anchored by Santa Clarita. Republican strategist and redistricting expert Matt Rexroad said his assumption is that «2022 is going to be a very good year for Republicans overall,» but he noted the GOP may have a more uphill struggle with the new maps in the cycles that follow. «There’s several seats in here that I think are seats that Republicans might even be favored in 2022, but I don’t know how that would look in, like 2028, as they continue to change,» he said. California’s independent commission largely ignored existing congressional lines and the home addresses of the state’s politicians, which more partisan processes have been criticized for taking into account, as they created the new maps. After Monday night’s initial vote, the commission plans to leave the maps untouched for several days for public review, before giving final approval to the new districts as soon as December 26 and turning the maps over to the secretary of state. But California’s battlefield for the 2022 elections is still taking shape, with a complex game of musical chairs expected over the next few weeks. Recent iterations of the maps placed as many as three incumbents in the same district and some of them may leapfrog into different districts if it improves their odds of winning. Members of Congress are not required to reside in the districts where they run, although running outside of their home districts sometimes opens candidates up to attacks on the campaign trail. Members of California’s delegation account for four of the 23 retirements in the House Democratic Caucus so far, opening up some opportunities for newcomers. Rep. Karen Bass is leaving Congress to run for Los Angeles mayor. Other members heading for the exits include Reps. Lucille Roybal-Allard, who represents portions of south and east Los Angeles; Alan Lowenthal who represents Long Beach; and Jackie Speier, who represents southern San Francisco and San Mateo County. Sam Oh, a Republican strategist who is the general consultant for Orange County GOP Reps. Young Kim and Michelle Steel — two members who won some of the toughest 2020 congressional races in California, predicted that there would be «a lot of campaign calls over the holidays to discuss every possible option» on both the Republican or Democratic sides. «Each campaign will do their due diligence to ensure that whatever seat they run for gives them the best long-term viability,» Oh said. «They’ll be polling, looking at demographic trends and having very interesting team discussions in the next couple of weeks here as people start announcing for seats.» A competitive field in Orange County California’s redistricting commissioners made major changes to the highly competitive areas of Orange County that will affect the fortunes of Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, as well as Steel, Kim and the Democratic contenders who had been lining up to challenge them. Commissioners essentially drew Porter, Steel and former Rep. Harley Rouda — the Democrat vying for a rematch with Steel — into the same seat, creating a long coastal district that encompasses Seal Beach and Huntington Beach to the north, continuing south through Costa Mesa and Newport Beach to an area south of Laguna Beach, while folding in much of the Democratic-leaning city of Irvine, where Porter lives. Porter intends to run in that new 47th District and Democratic strategists view it as a solid opportunity for her given her popularity and huge war chest, and the fact that President Joe Biden won by double digits in that area. But Rexroad cautioned that no one should count out Republicans in that new district, noting that his analysis shows former Republican gubernatorial candidate John Cox won just under 49% of the vote in that area in 2018 and that GOP candidates often overperformed former President Donald Trump in Orange County.
