Kyiv is encouraging the arming of nationalist paramilitary groups to thwart a Russian invasion. But they could also destabilize the government if it agrees to a peace deal they reject.
The Ukrainian political activist and militia member sat before his party’s flag leaving little doubt about his readiness for action. The flag depicted two axes crossed against a field of red. Yes, Yuri Hudymenko said, he is ready to take up arms, but not necessarily against Russia. As the leader of Democratic Ax — one of dozens of right-wing or nationalist groups that represent a potent political force in Ukraine and are fiercely opposed to any compromise with Moscow — his anger will be directed at Ukraine’s government if it grants too many concessions in exchange for peace. “We’ll deal with Russia one way or another later,” Mr. Hudymenko said. With a flair for the dramatic, he added: “If anybody from the Ukrainian government tries to sign such a document, a million people will take to the streets and that government will cease being the government.” Moscow has massed more than 130,000 troops on Ukraine’s borders, threatening an invasion unless its demands to rule out NATO membership for Ukraine, and for a rollback of NATO forces in Eastern Europe, are met. It remains unclear whether Western leaders and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia can negotiate a settlement of the crisis. But any resolution seems likely to force Kyiv to accept politically perilous concessions that could be destabilizing domestically. Earlier this week, for example, France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, proposed the “Finlandization” of Ukraine that would leave it neutral between Russia and NATO, like Finland during the Cold War. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has few cards to play in any talks with Moscow. Perhaps his strongest is the threat of an insurgency by nationalist groups like Democratic Ax and the even more influential Right Sector in the event of a Russian invasion. Recently, the government has even urged the nationalist parties to arm themselves more heavily. But the groups are a two-edged sword, threatening not just the Kremlin but also the Ukrainian government, which could be rocked and possibly overthrown by them if Mr. Zelensky agrees to a peace deal that in their minds gives too much to Moscow. Ukraine’s foreign minister and defense minister have both said in recent days that the greatest risk the country faces is internal destabilization under the threat of a Russian invasion, not an actual attack. And in a country whose citizens have twice taken to the streets in the post-Soviet period and unceremoniously booted out governments seen as doing Moscow’s bidding, this is no idle threat.
