The time may come for an open confrontation with China. For a host of reasons, that time is not now.
In 1990, as China opened itself to a more prominent role in global economic and political affairs, Deng Xiaoping famously admonished the country’s leadership to «hide your strength, bide your time.» On the eve of China’s 20th National Congress, the U.S. would be well advised to take Deng’s advice and shore up its own economic posture before taking a more aggressive stance toward China.
The National Congress will be more than a simple coronation of Premier Xi Jinping, who is expected to receive an unprecedented third term in office. China is suffering from an extended economic downturn with a weakened yuan and the apparent bursting of the country’s real estate bubble. These domestic crises will serve to temper China’s regional and global ambitions unless Beijing perceives a fundamental threat to its economic or territorial security.
China already senses such threats brewing, and with good reason. The dollar’s strength against the yuan reflects both China’s economic weakness and the Federal Reserve’s desire to curb inflation. Taiwan’s diplomatic status received fresh attention when Russia invaded Ukraine, and hawks from both sides of the aisle have sought to harden America’s stance against what many in the West perceive as Chinese expansionism and what many in China perceive as long-overdue reunification.
The time may come for a more open confrontation with China over economic and security issues. For a host of reasons, that time is not now.
