Global carbon emissions in 2022 remain at record levels—with no sign of the decrease that is urgently needed to limit warming to 1.5°C, according to the Global Carbon Project science team.
Global carbon emissions in 2022 remain at record levels—with no sign of the decrease that is urgently needed to limit warming to 1.5°C, according to the Global Carbon Project science team.
If current emissions levels persist, there is now a 50% chance that global warming of 1.5°C will be exceeded in nine years.
The new report projects total global CO2 emissions of 40.6 billion tons (GtCO2) in 2022. This is fueled by fossil CO2 emissions that are projected to rise 1.0% compared to 2021, reaching 36.6 GtCO2—slightly above the 2019 pre-COVID-19 levels. Emissions from land-use change (such as deforestation) are projected to be 3.9 GtCO2 in 2022.
Projected emissions from coal and oil are above their 2021 levels, with oil being the largest contributor to total emissions growth. The growth in oil emissions can be largely explained by the delayed rebound of international aviation following COVID-19 pandemic restrictions.
The 2022 picture among major emitters is mixed: emissions are projected to fall in China (0.9%) and the EU (0.8%), and increase in the U.S. (1.5%) and India (6%), with a 1.7% rise in the rest of the world combined.
The remaining carbon budget for a 50% likelihood to limit global warming to 1.5°C has reduced to 380 GtCO2 (exceeded after nine years if emissions remain at 2022 levels) and 1230 GtCO2 to limit to 2°C (30 years at 2022 emissions levels).
To reach zero CO2 emissions by 2050 would now require a decrease of about 1.
