Breaking down the remaining races, and when we might know.
Election Day 2022 didn’t turn out at all like Republicans had hoped and even expected. Their performances in the battle for the House, the Senate and in other races rank among the worst for an opposition party in recent midterm history.
But thanks to the razor-thin majorities Democrats brought into Tuesday, Republicans are still expected to narrowly win the House, and could also grab the Senate — which would surely be more than a consolation prize.
Which leads to the question: Will they?
Democrats appear to have a slight edge in the Senate, but much remains unknown, and it’s all very much in play.
Technically, four races remain uncalled after Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) was declared the winner in his race early Wednesday afternoon. They are Alaska, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. But the winner in Alaska will be a Republican, with Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) favored to edge fellow Republican Kelly Tshibaka in a ranked-choice race.
That leaves us with three — Arizona, Nevada and Georgia — and the party that can win two of them will nab the barest of majorities.
It’s going to take some time to learn the outcome — potentially days or even weeks. The vote counts in Arizona and Nevada are slow. And Georgia will head for a runoff on Dec. 6.
We’ll take the first two races first.
In Arizona, Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) leads Republican Blake Masters by nearly five points with two-thirds of the vote in. He appears to be Democrats’ best shot at getting one of the two seats they need.
The vast majority of the remaining vote is in Kelly-friendly counties — Maricopa (Kelly plus-8) and Pima (Kelly plus-26).
