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A sophisticated new study of a simulated war between China and the U.S over Taiwan reveals Chinese forces would be defeated in the conflict but with a high cost in casualties and heavy losses of U.S. and allied large ships and aircraft, according to a think tank report made public Monday.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies conducted 24 separate wargame scenarios involving an amphibious assault by China across the 100-mile Taiwan Strait, setting off a war with Taiwan, the United States and Japan. U.S. military officials say Chinese strategists see a military “window” for action against Taipei in the next few years.
“In most scenarios, the United States/Taiwan/Japan defeated a conventional amphibious invasion by China and maintained an autonomous Taiwan,” the report concludes. “However, this defense came at high cost.”
The cost, even in the “optimistic scenarios,” according to the report: “The United States and Japan lose dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and thousands of service members. Such losses would damage the U.S. global position for many years. While Taiwan’s military is unbroken, it is severely degraded and left to defend a damaged economy on an island without electricity and basic services.”
“China also suffers heavily,” the report noted. “Its navy is in shambles, the core of its amphibious forces is broken, and tens of thousands of soldiers are prisoners of war.”
With Chinese President Xi Jinping defining the re-taking of Taiwan a “core interest” of his government, the 165-page report states that a U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan remains “the most dangerous potential flashpoint in bilateral relations.”
Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned several months ago that China appears to be speeding up its timetable for action against Taiwan, which Beijing regards as a breakaway province despite the island having a separate government for more than 70 years. U.S. military commanders also have warned that a Chinese military operation against Taiwan could take place before the end of the decade.
Adm. Philip S. Davidson, who stepped down as head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in April 2021, told Congress a Chinese invasion of Taiwan was possible in the next six years.
The U.S. military frequently conducts simulated war games against China. The results of the exercises are kept secret to avoid alerting China to U.S. military weaknesses and vulnerabilities, but analysts and game organizers have said in the past that China is often victorious in the simulated conflicts.
The CSIS report said it conducted the war games and made the results public to enhance debate on the topic. CSIS simulators said they tried to cast a wider lens to describe the multinational conflict that is most likely to occur.
U.S. policy toward Taiwan is rooted in the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act that calls for supporting a defense of Taipei but stops short of saying U.S. forces would intervene in a conflict.
Chinese forces since August have stepped up provocative military exercises around Taiwan, including missile firings that were part of a simulated practice for an island takeover campaign. Just over the weekend, a fleet of Chinese military jets again crossed over into Taiwan’s defensive air space in the Taiwan Strait, the latest violation of the long-respected boundary line.
Military analysts say current U.S. military forces remain focused on Army forces needed for the post 9/11 war on terrorism and not enough has been done to refocus the military toward deterring China in the Pacific theater.
To meet the challenge of China’s increasingly aggressive military, the United States needs to transform forces to boost naval and air power.
Learning from history
The CSIS report said conflict scenarios were developed from historical data and operations research that modeled a Chinese invasion in 2026.
