The latest attack on Ukraine included six hypersonic Kinzhal missiles. none of which were shot down. Does this signal a shift in the defense of Ukraine?
Russia launched a wave of missiles and drones at Ukraine last night in the biggest strike for weeks, again targeting the electricity infrastructure, causing blackouts and civilians deaths at several locations across the country. In one sense, this is more of the same, as Russia has been carrying out such strikes for several months. But the missiles used this time, and Ukraine’s mixed success in shooting them down, has led to renewed pleas for better air defenses. If Russia can field numbers of its new hypersonic missiles, the game may be about to change.
According to a statement from General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, the attacks aimed at critical infrastructure comprised several different types launched from air, sea and land:
28 X-101/X-555 air-launched cruise missiles;
20 Kalibr sea-launched cruise missiles;
6 X-22 air-launched cruise missiles;
6 X-47 Kinzhal air-launched hypersonic missiles
8 air-launched guided missiles (X-31P/6 X-59)
13 Ground-launched S-300 guided missiles.
8 Shahed-136/131 kamikaze drones
In response, Zaluzhnyi says Ukrainian forces destroyed 34 out of 54 cruise missiles (63%), all eight of the air-launched guided missiles (100%), and four drones (50%).
One of the things that stands out is the wild variety of munitions involved. It does look like Russia is throwing everything it can into the barrage, and it is a mixed bag.
In particular the S-300 missiles look like an act of desperation. The S-300 is designed as a mobile surface-to-air missile system, capable of intercepting aircraft, cruise and ballistic missiles, with a secondary capability against ground targets. Normally it is radar guided, but the ground-based radar cannot illuminate a distant target also on the ground, so it relies on inertial guidance and is unlikely to give high accuracy. The warhead is only 150 kilos – about a third as much as an X-101 – so will do comparatively little damage.
