The next stage of Putin’s bloody war is closing trade in the Black Sea, prompting economic disruption, increased poverty and more disaster-driven migration.
In the next stage of Vladimir Putin’s bloody attempt to conquer Ukraine, grain is his strategic weapon of choice. In pulling out of a crucial deal that allowed the export of grain from Ukraine through the Black Sea and attacking the port of Odessa in recent days, he is setting the stage for a global food crisis.
The consequences will be dire for low-income countries, which are particularly vulnerable to rising grain prices on global commodity markets. If Putin is allowed to pursue this strategy, the likely effect will be economic disruption, increased poverty and more disaster-driven migration around the world.
For centuries, Ukraine was referred to as the “breadbasket of Europe.” Since regaining its independence in 1991, Ukraine improved its agricultural efficiency and in 2021-22 was exporting between 3 and 6 million metric tons of grain (corn, wheat and barley) per month. Before the full-scale invasion in early 2022, much of this export was by ship through the Black Sea. This route was initially blocked by Russian forces, but in July 2022, all sides agreed to allow Ukrainian grain exports to resume.
Now, unfortunately, Russia is again blocking that grain export corridor.
Earlier this month, Russian forces destroyed a grain terminal in the port of Odessa, wiping out storage facilities holding enough grain to feed nearly 300,000 people for a whole year. Russia has since blocked the movement of more than two dozen ships that were already loaded with enough Ukrainian grain to feed millions.
