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Inflation Comes In Hotter Than Expected: What Does It Mean For Rates?

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Inflation rates, as measured by the Producers Price Index and the Consumer Price Index, came in a little hotter than expected in September.
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The big economic news of the week centered on inflation, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly reports on prices. Inflation rates as measured by the Producers Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in a little hotter than expected in September.
That begins speculation on what the Federal Reserve will do at its next Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting on Oct. 31 – Nov. 1. The Fed has been raising rates for a year and a half to tame inflation, and while it is way down, the question now is whether the Fed will see September’s numbers as a reason to keep hiking rates.
The CPI, which measures inflation rates for the products consumers buy, rose 0.4% month over month in September. However, the headline number, which is the one the Fed tracks more closely, is the year-over-year rate, which held steady at 3.7%.
In fact, the 3.7% inflation rate over the past 12 months is slightly higher than expected. Economists had predicted a monthly increase of 0.3% and a year-over-year rise of 3.6%. As a result, the stock markets were down slightly on Thursday morning after the CPI was released.
Yesterday, the BLS released the September PPI, which is the measure of prices that producers, or businesses, receive for their products. The PPI rose 0.5% in September, which was lower than the 0.

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