Opinion polls suggest Tory party recovery is near impossible as ministers prepare for next leadership contest
Rishi Sunak to be interviewed by Laura Kuenssberg as Tory conference opens
Good morning. Rishi Sunak is in Manchester for his first Conservative party conference as leader. Given there is talk of next year’s conferences being cancelled to make time for an autumn election, it is not impossible that it will be his last. He is determined to use this as a reset moment, which is why there has been a hyperactive bout of policies being announced or floated over the last fortnight, but the electoral outlook is grim. Three developments in the news as the event opens show just how bad things are.
1) The opinion polls suggest recovery is near impossible. Some polling companies have picked up a Conservative bounce since Sunak gave his net zero speech, delaying some green measures, but other pollsters are showing no gain at all and, overall, the situation remains very bleak. Today the Observer publishes Opinium polling suggesting that a third of those who voted Conservative in 2019 now intend to switch to other parties.
The Observer: Education ministry keeps secret files on critics of schools policy #TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/3dq0MdjQkd— George Mann (@sgfmann) September 30, 2023
And the Independent has published an article by Prof Sir John Curtice, Britain’s leading psephologist, in which he says:
The party finds itself on average 18 points behind Labour in the polls – little better than the position 12 months ago after Liz Truss was displaced as prime minister by Rishi Sunak …
The Conservatives appear to be heading unwaveringly on a course that leads towards heavy defeat in an election that is now at most little more than a year away.
Independent: Tories heading for election wipeout, says top pollster #TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/83nfxJvS0C— George Mann (@sgfmann) September 30, 2023
2) Cabinet ministers are already preparing for the next leadership contest.
