Both candidates have similar favorability ratings in all six states, but Biden has lost significant shares of voters across demographics that helped him win in 2020.
Topline
Former President Donald Trump would beat President Joe Biden in five of six key battleground states—wins that would likely secure an Electoral College victory—according to a new poll taken a year before the election, which shows voters are dissatisfied with the direction the country is moving and blame Biden for their personal hardships.Key Facts
Biden trails Trump by 10 points in Nevada, six in Georgia, five in Arizona, four in Pennsylvania and five in Michigan, according to the New York Times/Siena poll of 3,662 registered voters taken between October 22 and November 3 (margin of error 1.8), which shows Biden would beat Trump in only one battleground state, Wisconsin, by two points.
If the election were held today, Trump would net more than 300 Electoral College votes, surpassing the 270 needed to win, according to a Times analysis of the results.
But the poll found that another generic Democrat running against Trump would win five of the six battleground states by seven to 12 points, and Nevada by three.
