If the 2024 general election were held today, a new multistate poll shows that many of the key swing states that propelled President Biden into the White House in 2020 would go to former President Donald Trump and likely return him to office.
If the 2024 general election were held today, a new multistate poll shows that many of the key swing states that propelled President Biden into the White House in 2020 would go to former President Donald Trump and likely return him to office.
According to a survey of more than 3,000 registered voters released Sunday by the Siena College Research Institute and the New York Times, with just under a year left until election day Trump is beating Biden in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan and Nevada.
The poll shows Biden winning in Wisconsin, but that’s not enough to prevent Trump from securing more than enough electoral college votes to claim victory nationally.
“The only good news for President Joe Biden in this New York Times/Siena College poll is that it was conducted a year before voters go to the polls,” Siena pollster Don Levy said in a statement. “Currently, former President Donald Trump leads Biden in five of six key battleground states – all won by Biden in 2020 – that will likely determine the winner of the 2024 presidential election.”
Polling shows Trump up by three points in both Pennsylvania and Michigan, five points in Arizona, seven points in Georgia, and 11 points in Nevada.
Those are all states where Trump or his allies challenged the results following the 2020 election. No court accepted arguments of malfeasance or was shown fraud substantial enough to demonstrate Trump won those states, nor did any recount reverse a Biden victory, despite the former president’s claims or those made by others.
If Trump were to legitimately win in the states where polling shows he leads, with all else being equal and regardless of the result of the popular vote, he could potentially win the presidency in 2024 with 296 electoral college votes to Biden’s 242.
