As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine nears its third anniversary, Newsweek has assessed what the losses might be on both sides.
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine will enter its third year next month, and there is little sign the conflict will conclude soon, with Russian President Vladimir Putin recently suggesting the war will only end «when we achieve our goals.»
Estimates of those killed in the conflict have been hard to substantiate, with neither side publishing tallies of their losses. U.S. officials said in August that Ukraine and Russia’s total deaths and injuries had neared 500,000.
Western officials have cast doubts on the accuracy of Russia’s figures on military casualties.
The last update from the Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, in September 2022, said there had been 6,000 Russian casualties. This contradicted other reports from even earlier in the conflict; in July 2022 the head of the British Armed Forces said that some 50,000 Russian soldiers had been killed or wounded.
Earlier this week, the BBC’s Russian service, along with independent outlet Mediazona, reported that civilian recruits who have joined the Russian military since February 2022 accounted for almost half of Russia’s current combat losses. They are often sent into battle with outdated equipment, the outlets reported
The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has published totals of Russian losses since the invasion began on February 24, 2022. Its most recent estimate, published on January 31, said 379,610 Russian personnel had been «lost.»
While historically Ukrainian estimates have exceeded those provided by other governments and think tanks, U.S. figures shared with the press in December 2023 are not far from that number.
This comes to around 80,000 killed and 240,000 wounded, which also includes groups like Wagner, DPR and LPR, and immigrant soldiers. Bladel, an expert in Russian military and strategic culture, said there remained a «more crucial question revolves around how the Russian armed forces handle those categorized as KIA.
